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Sunday, 10 July 11
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


Stronger Capesize demand has helped propel the dry bulk market forward this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ending yesterday’s session up by 1.05% to 1,443 points. The Capesize Index has inched higher, gaining 1.63% on Wednesday to reach 2,116 points, managing to stay clear ahead of the Panamax sector. Panamaxes were also higher by 2.01% with the relative Panamax Index now standing at 1,626 points. Up until a couple of weeks ago, Panamaxes were ahead of their larger Capesize counterparts, in a paradox of the latest circumstances prevailing in the dry bulk market for months.

In a latest update on the Capesize resurgence, US-based analyst Commodore Research & Consultancy said that approximately 108 dry bulk vessels were delivered in May, a significant increase from 71 vessels delivered in April. May saw the delivery of 29 handysize vessels, 36 handymax vessels, 22 panamax vessels, and 21 capesize vessels. In comparison, April saw the delivery of 14 handysize vessels, 20 handymax vessels, 20 panamax vessels, and 31 capesize vessels.

“Approximately 35 vessels were demolished in May, a small increase from 27 vessels demolished in April. May saw the demolition of 11 handysize vessels, 4 handymax vessels, 8 panamax vessels, and 12 capesize vessels. In comparison, April saw the demolition of 11 handysize vessels, 5 handymax vessels, 6 panamax vessels, and 5 capesize vessels.

The capesize market fared the best in May, registering a net addition of only 9 vessels (in comparison, April saw a net addition of 26 Capes). This is partially why Cape rates have been able to find support since the second half of May. The 12 Capes that were scrapped in May were the largest amount of Capes scrapped in a single month this year. In comparison, January to April saw an average of 6 Capes scrapped per month. May’s small net addition, combined with an increase in iron ore and coal demand seen throughout much of June, has helped average Cape rates rise from approximately $5,500/day at the middle of May to almost $14,000/day” said Commodore in its report.

In its latest weekly analysis of the dry bulk market, Fearnley’s said, referring to the Capesize segment, that “as most players were expecting a summer quiet market, the opposite is happening. West Australia/China route is stronger, in spite of only one of the big three appears to be active. Although little information in the market appears about last done levels, it seems mid 8s is the going level for this route. For Tubarao/Qingdao we see more activity as well, and bid/offer is presently usd 20,50/21.00 bss Tub/Qingdao. Short period is steady, with expectations for some further improvement, bid/offers for short period usd 12,000/12,500 dly” said the shipbroker.

In the Panamax segment, “despite recent signs of life in the Cape market, and spot levels on Panamax turning positive mid week, the sentiment in the Panamax market suffers from an underlying weak tone. Charterers are holding back and activity overall is limited. In the Atlantic prompt positions has been cleared out and rates are slowly climbing in mid teens. Grain orders still appear from ECSA, and runs to the Far East holding at 25 + 500 for ballasters or 22-23k bss Med positions. Owners are still suffering in the eastern hemisphere by lack of fresh requirements from both Aussie and NOPAC. Low volumes on coal with just a few Indonesian rounds still there, and short term expectations for coal is not encouraging. Pacific levels not at five figures yet. The FFA market is hovering around 12-13k for the next 12-18 months, maintaining similar levels for short/medium period where activity also is limited” said Fearnley’s.

Finally, on the Handy sector, it’s been “a quiet market with low activity for Supramax in the Atlantic this week, in particular for Cont/Med positions. NCSA-USG spot/prompt loaders also struggling to find employment. Ballasters from Indian Ocean adding pressure to the South Atlantic resulting in an overall negative trend.

The Pacific market is quiet. For Indo-India, Supras in south China are getting close to 11k. Nickel-ore rounds are getting firm rates in low-mid teens. Very quiet on iron ore front due to monsoons as WCI-China rates slided to 10k and from ECI around 9k.

Few Indian tonnage seen ballasting to Indonesia and RBCT. As a result, RBCT biz fixed on APS at around 20k. Red Sea, ferts on handymax/Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voy bss to WC India. Period deals done at 14-15k for large Supras” concluded Fearnley’s.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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