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Thursday, 30 June 11
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWS SIGNS OF FURTHER WEAKENING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market seems to be unable to shake off the additional supply of vessels, an oversupply issue of grave concern that would have occured even if the world economy hadn’t undergone the worst recession in recent decades. With China’s moods and swings continuing to play a catalytical role in dry bulk rates’ volatility, things are expected to stay as they currently, at least until more nations like India and other emerging economies come forward and major economies return to their pre-recession levels of activity.

As a result of these conditions, with the added “bonus” of fears for a Chinese economy major slowdown, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) remains trading at multi-year lows, declining by more than 20% since the beginning of the year. Yesterday, the index took another dive down to 1,420 points, a fall of 1.25% on a daily basis. All ship types were down as well, with Capesizes losing 1.63% and Panamaxes retreating yet again by 2.33%, on the back of Tuesday’s fall of 3.18 percent. Brokers said the market lacked direction due to slow business. In a report, Reuters said that earnings for panamaxes, which usually transport 60,000-70,000 tonne cargoes of coal or grains, have more than halved since the same period last year.

"We continue to believe that the order book will outweigh the impact of scrapping over the near-to-intermediate-term and keep dry bulk day rates under pressure," Wells Fargo Securities said in a note, quoted by Reuters.

In its weekly report, shipbroker Fearnley’s said, referring to the capesize market, that “the Pacific market has continued to rise on the back of last week´s strength. Driven by vessels delays the majors had to scramble to cover early positions and driving the West Australia freight rate up from a conference level in the mid/upper USD 7.00´s to high USD 9.00. Since then it has pulled back a bit but still trading in the upper USD 8.00 level. The Atlantic has also proven to be robust with levels now north of USD 14k daily on timecharter, and tonnage is still in tight supply. There were a few period deals done in the upper USD 11k´s for short period, and around USD 11k for a one year deal. Presently the market seems stable at today´s improved levels” said the shipbroker.

Regarding the ailing Panamax segment, it mentioned that it “continued its downward pointing curve this week with rates knocking off ard USD 1,000 in both hemispheres. It seems the Pacific has dried up with cargoes as rates just keep on declining. Several ows are now ballasting towards the ECSA grain cargoes to secure employment for their ships. In the Atlantic owners are getting more and more reluctant to leave the basin and this puts pressure on the rates. The Tarv´s are now being fixed in the region of USD 15k while the Fhauls are fetching around USD 22k. In the Pacific, rounds are being fixed at tick below USD 10k while the backhauls are getting a poor 5k level. The period market also took a dive this week with the MV CLARE 74,759 dwt/blt´05 being fixed with delivery Mizushima for 11/14 months at USD 12,750” said the report.

As for the smaller Handy/Supramax segment, Fearnley’s noted that “the Atlantic seems over supplied with tonnage on prompt positions. The sentiment is nervous but it could be better balance for mid July positions onwards. EC South America also softening assisted by ballasters from Indian Ocean. West coast India remains inactive due to monsoon in India. There has been no change in India, good vessel in EC India may see around USD 10k for an Indonesian round voyage and Richards Bay will see the same. Handymax/Supramax may see low/mid USD 20 for Red Sea/India business. In the Pacific large Supras are able to secure 10k for NoPac rounds with an underlying weaker tone for forward positions” concluded the shipbroker.

In its report, Reuters mentioned that brokers were watching for further developments in China, which is facing its worst power shortages in years and likely to have an impact on dry freight activity. Uncertainty over prospects for the world economy could also potentially hurt demand for raw materials said the agency.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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