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Wednesday, 29 June 11
ANOTHER STRONG PERFORMANCE BY CAPESIZE - BRS


Another strong performance by the Capesize market this week, bringing the BCI up 8% to 1,974 points. However the Panamax market was penalised, losing 8% to 1,764. There was little change for the smaller sizes, with the Supras flat at 1,322 and the Handysizes coming off slightly by 1.5% to fall to 721. In the steel markets, markets recorded a drop in global crude steel production in May of 1%, the first fall in three months. Declines in China were the main driver, and production is expected to slow further in the third quarter due to the country’s energy shortages. However with an annualized production rate of around 710m tonnes, output still remains significantly higher than last year’s  626m tonnes. Meanwhile in Europe, it was confirmed European buyers are now maintaining lower inventories in the wake of the financial crisis. Prior to 2007, inventory volumes were typically equivalent to 90 days of sales, but have now fallen closer to 60 days.

Capesize
A busy period in the Atlantic and Australia saw a second week of rate rises for the Capes: the BCI rose 8% to 1,974 points, while the 4TC rose to US$11,571 by week end. This 8% increase was replicated on both the Atlantic routes and Pacific and Bolivar-East Med rose to $13.50, while  Hedland-Qingdao rose to $8.45. It was much quieter out of Brazil and rates rose more modestly there to around $20.50. In the FFA market, paper rates also rose with the physical market and by Friday close, Q3 and Q4 were trading at $10,808 and $11,808 respectively.

Panamax
The Panamax 4TC average went down by US$1,200/day closing the week at US$14,125/day underlying a quietness in all basins. East of Suez, the Indian ocean was still impacted by the monsoon and kept quiet and flat: Panamax out of WCi to China were paying $ 12/12.5 pmt. The Iron ore price market decreased this week on the back of a seasonal quiet Q3 and on very important iron ore stock pile at main Chinese ports.  The nopac route went down by more than US$ 2,000/day with ships getting fixed at US$11,500/day. In the Atlantic, the tightness of tonnage was still supporting the market and we notices a drop of only US$1,000/day Friday to Friday. The USG was still active on coal export and the ECSA with grain mainly for trip out, paying still healthy number (mid 20’s + 550bb). On the period front the market was very quiet. The short period round for a LME dely Nchina redel WW was paying low 14’s pday.

Supramax/Handy
The Baltic Supramax Index went up by only 1 point to finish at 1,320 points last week, while the average of the time charter routes stayed steady to finish at US$13,800 per day.  The market was active in both Atlantic and Pacific basins. In the Atlantic, Supramax tct from the USG to skaw/passero was getting fixed in the high US$20,000 daily delivery USG. Grain and sugar were still pushing hard in ecsa.  Supramax were fixed for trip out at rate in the very low US$20,000’s daily dely Wafr region. TARV  was showing rates in the high teens. In the Pacific, rates remained flat in the Far East/sS.E.Asia region, where levels are standing in betwteen US$8 and 10,000’s daily. Vessel s were getting fixed in the low teens on t/c basis Indonesia to India. One can see a general trend on vessels opening in India with owners still preferring to fix rbct coal and ECSA business back to the far east.  On the smaller sizes, the Baltic Handysize index went down by 15 points to finish at 719 points with the time charter routes losing US$200 to reach US$10,700 daily.  The Atlantic is firmer than the Pacific and the TARV is worth US$12,000/day today, whereas the Pacific round voyage is worth US$9/10,000 daily.  On the period front, a large 57k dwt recently built fixed for 3/5 months trading delivery feast at US$13,500 daily with worldwide redelivery.
Source:
BARRY ROGLIANO SALLES



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