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Friday, 17 June 11
DRY BULK BREATHES SIGH OF RELEAF ON RENEWED CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market has caught a sign of relief from the middle of the week onwards, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) increased once again yesterday, this time by 1.35% to 1,424 points, on stronger demand for Capesize vessels. The larger dry bulk ship type, which is also the most overweighed by tonnage oversupply, rose by an impressive 4.66% yesterday, with the Baltic Capesize Index reaching 1,796 points, closing in on Panamaxes, which were down by 1.31% to 1,952 points. The smaller in size Panamax segment has been outpacing Capesizes for some time now, in yet another sign that the dry bulk market has turned page in its pattern, together with high volatility, depending on demand moves and swings.

Referring to the Capesize market, the latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnley’s said that “signs of life again after a week in the doldrums. Atlantic is heating up, with a sudden dramatic increase in transatlantic demand - too fresh to be reflected in levels concluded. Fronthaul volumes are stable at low volumes – rates unchanged w-o-w ie around usd 22k for fhaul trips, around usd 20/mt on the Tubarao/Qingdao ore run. Major miners steadily picking tonnage for iron ore Waust/China, but rates improved only marginally to some usd 7.80 pmt on the Dampier/Qingdao reference trade. Moderate period activity – exemplified by 169,000 dwt/built 2009 done for 12 mos at usd 10,500 and 17,6000 dwt/built 2010 done for 4/6 mos at usd 10,250 - both basis prompt delivery in Far East” said the report.

In the Panamax front, the shipbroker’s comment was “Hot for spot!”. It went on to mention that “June loaders for a still active ECSA grain season and Indonesian coal requirements have pushed the market in both hemispheres to be more comfortable than perhaps anticipated. Furthermore, increased mineral activity in the Atlantic improved opportunities for prompt positions, in particular on the Continent. Overall, the Panamax market maintains healthier levels than the bigger size at least for now. Transatlantic rounds in the USD 17,000 range, Fronthaul from ECSA typically 25,500 + 550 GBB. Pacific rounds in the mid teens with some stronger levels achieved for Indo rounds or trips to India. Period and forward market not affected much at all by the current lively spot market. The so called summer lull is not here – yet” it mentioned.

As for the smaller Handy ship types, Fearnley’s noted that “stable market in the Atlantic across the board with a ´good balance´ between tonnage and cargoes. More enquiries for the rest of June thus expect rates to firm up in the second half of the month but the element of uncertainty will be the effect from the important volume of ballasters coming from India/South Africa/PG. In the Pacific we have been seeing plenty of enquiries in the market. For short period business the level is around 15k per day. West coast tonnage may see close to usd 10k for trip to China with freight levels hovering between USD 15/17.00 pmt. Ec coast tonnage will compete for indo position with China business. Hmx/Spmx getting fixed at usd low/mid 20´s ex Rsea/India” concluded the shipbroker.

In a relative report, Reuters said that the outlook for dry bulk rates has been grim because ship supply has outpaced demand to ship commodities. The situation has been compounded by the deployment of a vessel owned by top iron ore producer Vale of Brazil, the first of the world's largest dry bulkers to enter the fleet. There were also expectations India's monsoon would reduce iron ore exports as rivers rise, hampering goods transportation. It also mentioned that brokers said the sheer pace of fleet growth especially in the larger capesize sector was set to cap gains in the coming months. They also mentioned that coal cargoes from Australia and Indonesia to China had provided some support to panamaxes.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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