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Thursday, 02 June 11
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS LOOKING INTO SHORTENED WEEK WITH ANXIETY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


With most markets in the western world closed yesterday, as a result of Memorial Day, dry bulk stakeholders weren’t able to build over the positive momentum that the market gained during the course of last week. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was closed on Monday. Still, last week, the heightened activity in the Atlantic basin, helped all but the Handysize segments to an increase last week, and the BDI ended Friday at 1,474 points (+9.3% on the previous week). The Cape, Panamax and Supramax indices rose 11.5%, 11.9% and 2.7% respectively.

Russia’s decision to lift its grain export ban from July 1 will see the world’s third largest wheat exporter re-enter the market. Russia says it expects to harvest 85-90 million tonnes of grain this year, compared to 2010 when the drought reduced the crop to 61 million tonnes. According to the US Department of Agriculture, Russia is expected to export 10 million tonnes of wheat over the next 12 months, compared to 4 million tonnes in the year just past.

In the Capesize segment, the latest weekly report from Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS) noted “a sharp leap in the four time charter average this week on the back of good activity in the Atlantic, including a significant number of round voyages. By Friday the 4TC was back over US$10,275, having gained more than US$2,500 over the week. Bolivar-E Med posted a gain of over 12%, while Tubarao-Dunkirk logged +11%. The Pacific did not enjoy the same jump although increased activity pushed Hedland-Qingdao up 3%, and Tubarao-Qingdao 2%. One rate of US$19.85 was reported for Brazil-China and Rio Tinto and BHP were both seen in the market. Finally, a 2010-built 177,000 tonner was taken for US$11,100 per day for four to seven months trading, a rise on previous done. Holidays in the UK on Monday meant no new Baltic indices but there is a little more optimism going forward” it said.

In the Panamax front, “last week the Panamax 4TC market firmed up by US$1,600 to end on Friday at close to US$15,000 per day and all basins registered gains except the Indian market.

West of Suez, the TA round closed the week at around US$16,000 – an increase of US$1,800 per day Friday to Friday. However, some prompt vessels managed to fix at over US$17,000 per day showing a tightness of supply, mainly due to the high number of fronthauls fixed over the last few weeks and busy coal exports out of USG. In the Pacific, the Nopac round gained US$2,000 to end close to US$14,000 per day. The Indonesian area was busy exporting coal to India and China. The Indian market remained stable, paying US$13 pmt for cargoes out of WCI to China, but volumes have reduced as the monsoon is approaching. On the period side, a few vessels were getting fixed and Tess 74 vessels open prompt were able to secure around US$14,000-14,500 per day for short period ie similar to a week ago” said the shipbroker.

As for the smaller Supramax/Handy segments, it mentioned that “they fared relatively well in all areas with the help of coal shipments out of Indonesia, sugar from ECSA, grains and fertilizers from the Black Sea, scrap from the Continent and coal, petcoke and grains from the USG/Caribs. As a result, congestion is still high in Brazil, the Black Sea and in some areas of the US. For Supras, levels stand at US$13,500-14,000 in the Pacific, mid teens in the Atlantic, and low US$20,000s for trip out. But clouds are amassing. Indian iron exports have come to virtually nothing, pushing vessels to sail in ballast towards healthier areas. Likewise a few ships have started ballasting from the Far East to south east Asia.

The severe drought in north European countries (namely France and Germany) is threatening the backlog of grain exports throughout the summer. Likewise, flooding and excessive rains are putting a damper on US grain crops. And Chinese coal imports seem to have slowed down since the turn of the year. But some say that due to the historical drought facing China and the consecutive power shortages, chances are we will see China import massive amounts of Indonesian coal over the summer. Overall, interesting times ahead, also when you consider newbuilding deliveries are slower than scheduled, with 20-25% of the 2011 orderbook subject to slippage” it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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