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Wednesday, 25 May 11
DRY BULK MARKET ENTERS WEEK ON A HIGH NOTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market has managed to end its downward trend of the past few weeks and surge back on higher ground. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 1.48% and reached 1,369 points, the highest it’s been in six weeks. Capesizes and Panamaxes were the main gainers. Especially, the larger Capes have gained 43% in the past four sessions, bringing the daily average charter rate up by 43% to $8,065. At the same time, the up until recently struggling panamax market was up once again, this time by 2.7% with daily average rates now reaching $13,724.

According to the latest report from shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles, the past week was deemed an unusual one, with Capesizes being the only segment to post significant gains. The BCI rose 9% w-o-w, while the overheated Panamax market saw a correction of -3%. Providing some more insight on the Capesize market, BRS said that it was a “strong week in the Atlantic, where rates showed double-digit gains, which lifted the BCI above 1,600 points for the first time in 6 weeks. A scarcity of ships in the region intensified the rate gain in the west and a translantic round was reported at US$8,500. In the Pacific, there remained heavy over tonnaging, although Brazil-China inched up by around 3%, with a possible deal done at US$19.50. Australia-China was unchanged. By the end of the week the four time charter average had reached US$7,754 and rates rose again slightly on Monday to US$8,065”.

Regarding the Panamax market, the report mentioned that “it started the week slowly and eased in all basins mainly due to a lack of fresh orders for prompt vessels. However, from Thursday, the market firmed up again thanks to a busy USG coal export trade and an active ECSA area exporting grain to the Far East. This latter trade over the last month has significantly decreased the available fleet in the Atlantic and pushed the TA round voyage up. The 4TC average Friday to Friday lost US$450 to finish at US$13,364 per day. The TA round lost US$200 closing the week at US$14,000 per day and the Nopac lost US$600 to close the week at US$12,000 per day. The WCI/China route kept flat paying US$13 pmt for Goa/N China trade. Short period activity was quiet throughout the week and rates firmed up by US$300, closing the week at US$14,500 per day” said the Paris-based shipbroker.

As for the smaller sizes, “the Baltic Supramax Index remained at the same levels at the beginning of the week before rising continuously as from Wednesday until the end of the week. Overall the Baltic index gained 20 points to finish at 1,413, while the average of the time charter routes gained US$210 points to end at US$14,770.

The US Gulf was the main driver of the Supramax market, though only a few fixtures were reported. Supras from the US Gulf to the Far East were fixed in the high US$20,000s, and around US$28,000 for Mediterranean destinations. Black Sea to the Far East (via Goa) were fixed around the US$22,000.

In the smaller sizes, the Baltic Handysize saw a mini yo-yo effect but remained steady overall throughout the week. The index lost 2 points to end at 786, while the time charter average lost US$39 to finish at US$11,662. The main event for the Handysize is the revival of the Black Sea market which has started to export grains again. Many players were fresh open with orders mainly to the Continent or the Spanish Mediterranean. Such trips would run around US$18/19,000. Fixtures from East Coast South America to the Far East are in the low US$20,000s and around the high US$10,000s to the Med/Black Sea area. On the Eastern side, Supramaxes ex India to China were fixed around US$13/14,000. Indonesia to India was done in the mid US$10,000s. The Nopac round was fixed at levels of US$12/13,000 dop Far East” concluded the report.

In important news for the market, OECD released a new report confirming strong expansion in world steel markets and forecasting 6% growth for both 2011 and 2012. World steel output growth slowed in the second half of last year but, on the back of Chinese demand, rose nearly 10% in the first quarter of 2011 q-o-q. However Chinese growth is expected to fall to around 5% in 2011 and 2012. Overall the world economy had seen strong recovery in automotive manufacturing in both the mature and developing economies, though demand in the construction sector has yet to recover in the advanced economies.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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