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Tuesday, 03 May 11
DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK SEEN WEAK, AS SHIP OWNERS PILE UP MORE SHIPS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


With the Baltic Dry Index not trading yesterday, it’s worth taking a step back to see the current freight levels. First of all, capesizes and panamaxes continue to trade at levels lower than their smaller counterparts, i.e. supramaxes and handies. In a complete paradox, earnings for handymaxes have reached double levels, compared to capesizes. At the same time, South American grain fixtures continue to float at firm levels, whereas the Chinese iron ore fixtures have shown some signs of minor increase not enough to balance with the oversupply in the capesize and panamax segment.

According to Commodore Research, about 81 million tons of iron ore is currently stockpiled at Chinese ports, an increase of 1.4 m tons (2%) from a week ago. Stockpiles have remained at near record levels since the end of January. There is anticipation for an increase in Chinese thermal coal fixtures till the end of May that will provide assistance to struggling capesize, panamax and supramax rates. Chinese thermal coal fixtures have already begun to increase due to low coal stockpiles and the approach of Northern Hemisphere peak season summer demand. However, domestic coal prices are still relatively low compared with international coal that impedes further a record of activity from previous year levels.

In a report from Golden Destiny, it is noted that Australian coal production continues to recover from the severe flooding seen at the end of last year, but there will still be periods of heavy rain in the coal rich eastern part of the nation. Weather conditions are expected to be much improved in Australia’s iron ore rich western region. As vessels’ deliveries surge, capesize and panamax freight markets will experience sporadic freight markets. Moreover, seaborne supplies of iron ore are unlikely to rise substantially for now even India’s Karnataka state has already lifted the ban on April 20th, due to monsoon period looming next month.

“After many weeks of constant fall, the BDI has finally showed small gains the last two days by closing at 1,269 points, up by 15 points (1%) from the end of previous week and down by 28% from the end of 2010, while at similar week in 2010 the BDI was 3,354 points. Capesizes are currently earning $ 6,698/day, an increase of $151/day (2%) from a week ago. Panamaxes are earning $11,620/day, an increase of $596/day (5%) from a week ago. Supramaxes are earning $14,530/day, a decline of $115/day and handysizes $11,897/day, a decline of $88/day respectively from a week ago” said the shipbroker.

In terms of the Greek presence in the new building and second hand markets, it was reported that while they are quite active in the first segment, they are equally inactive in the second. For instance, in the secondhand market, one panamax bulk carrier of 72,493 dwt built 1998 reported to have gone to Greek hands at a price region $20,2 mil. In the newbuilding market, DryShips, Safe Management Overseas and Atlantis Management have invested in the bulk carrier segment, placing two units in the capesize segment, one in the kamsarmax and one in the handysize segment respectively. Moreover, in the tanker segment European Navigation has placed an order for two suezmax shuttle tankers at price believed to be more than $100 mil each. in the newbuilding market, the total amount of money invested this week by the Greeks is estimated to be more than $300 million.

“In terms of S&P activity, the week ended with 44 sales reported in the secondhand and demolition market posting a 12% negative w-o-w change. The highest activity has been recorded for the last two weeks in the newbuilding market with more than 120 new contracts worldwide. Overall, in the secondhand market, 26 vessels reported to have changed hands this week equalling a total amount of money invested in the region of US$ 362.18 million.

In terms of the reported number of transactions, the S&P activity has been marked with a 18% negative w-o-w change, while is down by 7% comparable with previous year’s weekly S&P activity when 28 vessels induced buyers’ interest with bulk carriers grasping 25% share and tankers 53% of the total volume of S&P activity. In terms of invested capital, the most overweight sector for this week is the bulk carrier segment grasping 58% of the total amount of money invested with mostly handymax and panamax units of all ages being on the frontline” said the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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