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Friday, 22 April 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS FALLING, NOW AT TWO-MONTH LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market seems unable at the moment to recover from the weight of newbuilding deliveries, resulting in too many ships competing for fewer cargoes. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,254 points prior to Easter holidays, down by 0.63%, now standing at new lows. The Capesize market was lull remaining unchanged, with the biggest losses occurred in the Panamax segment, which retreated by 2.69%.

According to a weekly report from Shiptrade Services, “the Capesize market saw some good levels of fixing as demand grew this week in the Pacific for voyages from W. Australia to the Far East. As a result we saw some gains on Pacific RV which appear marginal as a result of the continuous overcapacity which is affecting the market. The Atlantic remains significantly subdued with the tonnage list ever increasing as ballasting vessels to the Atlantic have put more pressure on the market and have increased the congestion in South American ports.

The Panamax market showed some promise in the beginning of the week with a few fresh cargoes entering the market. However the effect was that due to the ample abundance of tonnage these cargoes were covered quickly and tonnage in the Pacific started to pile up further. Moreover in view of the upcoming Easter holiday it is unlikely that the situation will improve. Owners in the Atlantic have tried their best to resist the pressure but with such high levels of competition rates have unavoidably softened.

The Supramax market has faced another sliding week. In the Atlantic owners have tried to hold back however this does not seem to be sustainable with very limited business in the region. Rates in the Pacific are showing a sliding direction since demand has been thin and the region is still heavily constrained by the excess supply of vessels. There was no hope for fixtures out of India either this week, with an obvious drop in iron ore cargoes coupled with the effects of higher taxation on exports.

The Handysize market is the only one which managed to keep fairly stable this week. Rates across the board have even been showing slight gains. That is not to say however that there is a definite positive market direction. In ECSA we saw a positive note with a few more enquiries appearing for fronthaul trips” said the shipbroker’s report.

It went on to say that according to data from the Chinese Iron & Steel Association (CISA), the national daily crude steel production during March remained at positive levels, up by 4.6 %. Preliminary data from Chinese customs show an increase of Iron Ore imports by 22% in February. Australia on the other hand, according to the North Queensland Port Authority, shows a recovery in March shipments from Hay Point and Dalrymple Bay despite the latest severe flooding. The US Department of Commerce released its latest data showing a 52% year on year increase for US seaborne coal imports, which is the highest level seen since March 1992. Furthermore it seems that Japan became the largest single destination of US coal exports in February with 1.3 Million tons being imported against the 2.9 mill tons imported in total last year. In general the exports from US to the total Asia-Pacific region rose to 54% during February.

The latest world economic outlook from the IMF shows unchanged forecasts of 4.4 % for the world economic growth, although it continues to expect 9,6% economic expansion for China and it has lowered its estimates about India to 8.2% and the Middle east and North Africa to 4,1%. US Department of Agriculture has increased its estimates and now expects that world grain trade will total 269.57 million tons, increased by approximately 1.2 million tons than what was originally expected, this increase is occurred primarily due to raised expectations for wheat exports.

Regarding the S&P Market it seems that Tanker deals continue developing lately in spite of the low rates. M/T “Rainbow River“(107.160 dwt, Built Koyo Japan 1999) was reported sold to Greek buyers for USD 24 mill, following the one month earlier sale of the two years older M/T “Kythira” (107.176 dwt, Built Koyo 1997) to Indian Buyers for USD 21 mill.On the dry side we have seen a few Panamaxes changing hands lately. The M/V “Rondeau” (77.031 dwt, Built Namura Japan 2006, 9 HO / 9 HA) sold for USD 33 mill to Japanese Buyers, following the previous months’ sale of the one year older M/V “Mineral star” (76.285 dwt, Built Tsuneishi Japan 2005) for USD 32 mill. The M/V “Grand Sky” (75.752 dwt, Built Sanoyas Japan 1998) for USD 20 Mill via auctionand the sale of the 3 years older M/V “New Arising” (71.695 dwt, Built Hitachi Japan 1995) for USD 18.9 mill to Greek Buyers are some of the Panamaxes reported to have been sold during the last week.

Regarding inquiries the interest from the markets in the Far East is showing an increase of approximately 20%. The Greek market has shown a slight decrease in purchase interest by about 9%, while the European and other markets remain stable.
Source:
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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