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Wednesday, 13 April 11
CAPESIZE VESSELS ARE DELIVERED AT A PACE OF ONE NEW VESSEL EVERY SECOND DAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In a clear sign that it will take a significant rise in global seaborne dry bulk trade in order to be able to absorb the flurry of new building tonnage thrown into the water, BIMCO has issued a new report, saying, among others, that at the moment Capesize vessels are delivered at a rate of one new vessel every second day. On top of that, 6 VLOC’s have been launched with another 35 potentially up for delivery in 2011 (adjusted for slippage). The report also said that the active fleet has grown by 2.7% so far in 2011, caused by deliveries of 222 newbuilt vessels with an average cargo capacity of 85,000 DWT offset by 67 vessels with a total capacity of 4.8 million DWT being demolished.
On the positive side, “like in the tanker segments, demolition finally, but still surprisingly, has kicked off strongly – positively impacted by the high scrap steel prices. A 25 year-old large Capesize demolition was worth almost USD 11 million. However, the level of demolishing is still considerably below a level that could balance supply and demand and impact the freight markets positively” said the report by BIMCO’s shipping analyst, Peter Sand. “BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2011 to be a bit higher than in 2010 at 86 million DWT. As demolitions are expected to reach 12 million DWT, the fleet is forecast to grow by 13.8% in 2011. Newbuilding contracts are being signed at the slowest pace since Q2 in 2009. This is a very positive development, especially seen in the light of the unbelievable high contracting level in 2010 with 78 million DWT of new contracts” said the report.
In terms of the dry bulk market’s outlook, BIMCO said that “the events in Japan, will, in the short term, be a negative story for the dry bulk market as expected high volumes into Japan will be some 10-20 million tons lower, as coal power plants and steel mills have be shut down for a while and some are expected to be so for up to 1 year. In the medium to long term, dry bulk is likely to benefit as reconstruction takes off. Iron ore, coking coal, thermal coal and wood for construction are likely to be in higher demand following the disasters. Unlike Australia, which was a supply story, Japan is mainly about demand falling short – the impact on the freight market has been insignificant as compared to the flooding in Queensland.
BIMCO assesses that Capesize freight rates will remain in depressed territory in the coming months. Capesize Time Charter Average is likely to hover around USD 10,000–15,000 per day and backhaul trip charter earnings likely to continue to make negative returns.
The Capesize fleet has already grown 4.5% this year and overcapacity in the segment will stay a drag on freight rates each time they try to escape the doldrums. Supramax and Panamax are likely to stay firm in the USD 15,000–USD 20,000 per day interval as demand supports this level. Overall, dry bulk commodity demand growth is expected to be around 7-8% in 2011, with iron ore and coal as usual in the driving seat. This outlook provides a solid demand picture to comfort and fence a collapse of earnings, as oversupply is haunting all segments” said the report.
For the time being though, since early January, Capesize time charter rates have been below all the other segments including Handysize. While the 3 smaller segments have rebounded since then, Capesize is still down. “Current average of 4 time-charter routes is USD 10,371 per day. For comparison – a Handysize makes USD 11,849 per day, a Supramax USD 15,921 per day and a Panamax USD 15,807 per day. Spot rates on main Capesize iron ore trades from Brazil and Australia, which are the top two suppliers to the Chinese steel industry, look as if they have bottomed out during January and February. This year’s unfolding story in relation to iron ore trades will be the scheduled delivery of the first 6 out of 19 400,000 DWT VLOC’s to the Brazilian miner, Vale. This is expected to impact the market, as Vale is a large charterer of Capesize tonnage to service its Asian customers. In 2010, Vale exported 131 million tons to China. Estimating 6 round voyage a year, the 6 new build VLOC’s will be able to carry 14.4 million tonnes of iron ore p.a., equal to 11% of Vale exports to China. With another 13 to be delivered over the next 2-3 years, Vale will depend much less on the Capesize chartering market – as it will be self-sufficient in 25-30% of its tonnage demand. The vessels are intended to bring down Vale’s price disadvantage to the Australian iron ore by taking out the longhaul maritime transportation cost element. The spot rates are on average 2½ times higher on Brazilian ore, being a close mirror of the difference in distance.
It remains uncertain where Vale is going to establish its Asian iron ore distribution centre. First Qingdao was targeted, but failed to become a done deal. Lately Vale has focused on a Malaysian distribution hub, but another site remains an option, the Tianjin Dongjiang Free Trade Port Zone near Beijing – a new giant port and logistics centre. The final location will be vital to the success of VLOC’s.
Seaborne Iron ore demand is expected to grow by 7% overall, where China will take the most and European demand will increase to a precrisis level.
Also recently, the commodities trader Cargill has decided to become a ship owner once again, this time round mainly with the purpose of being an asset player. This adds to the number of large charterers making an entry into ship owning primarily with the object of controlling a larger part of the supply chain and converting variable costs to fixed costs.
The demand for taking Capesize vessels on time charter is on a par with last year. Time charter rates are currently higher than spot freight rates, which indicates an extraordinarily weak spot market. Representative deals that support the rather flat medium term expectation in the market are, amongst others, Cargill taking the “Semirio”, 174,000 DWT for two years at USD 17,000 per day and Rio Tinto taking “Bulk India”, 177,000 DWT for one year at USD 16,500 per day”, concluded BIMCO’s analysis
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 10 May 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RISING, OUTLOOK MIXED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched forward once again on Monday, with the Baltic Dry Index rising by 0.6% to 1,348, although the Capesize market was 0.57% l ...
Monday, 09 May 11
THAILAND COAL IMPORTS SURGE IN Q1 - ICAP SHIPPING
Thailand's coal imports leapt 20% in Q1 and the country looks set to import its largest ever volume in 2011 as quoted by ICAP Shipping web site.
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Monday, 09 May 11
KOSPO SEEKING 65KT STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Southern Power Co (KOSPO) issues tender for 65000 Mt of Steaming Coal Supply with a minimum CV of 4,500 kcal/kg on NAR basis. D ...
Monday, 09 May 11
INDONESIA HBA FALL BELOW $118
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has set the May 2011 Indonesian Coal Reference Price for thermal coal at US$ 11 ...
Monday, 09 May 11
DIAN SWASTATIKA Q1 PROFIT SOARS 511 PERCENT - INSIDER STORIES
PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), parent of coal miner PT Golden Energy Mines, reported a 511.73% jump in net profit for the first quarter of t ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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