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Tuesday, 29 March 11
JAPAN FACTOR RIPPLING THROUGH THE SHIPPING MARKETS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


With the world watching the latest developments regarding the nuclear crisis in Japan and the devastating effects of the recent tragedy that struck the country in the local economy, the shipping sector has also been greatly affected. Every day that goes by things become even more clearer as to the repercussions the Japan crisis will bring to the shipping industry.

Last week ended with Capesize rates averaging $ 10,718/day, an increase of $1,349 (14.4%) from a week ago. Panamax rates are averaging $16,693/day, a decrease of $ 28 (0.76%). Supramax rates are averaging $16,762/day, an increase of $304(1.84%). Handysize rates are averaging $11,704/day, an increase of $393(3.47%). The BDI remained unchanged on Monday to 1,585 points, which is still up by 3.5% on a weekly basis, but 50% down from the same week of the previous year.

In an analysis issued yesterday, shipbroker Golden Destiny said that as a result of the tsunami, many Japanese ports have been closed, causing disruptions in the cargo supply chain. Meantime, the earthquake in the north east Japan is expected to influence the volume of steel production. Reports of five closures at five steel mills in Chiba, Heihin, Muroran and Kimitsu will likely reduce ore imports. Some forecasts are suggesting that ore demand could decline by as much as 20-25m tones and 10 million tones of coking coal demand. On the other hand, it may spur steel exports from neighboring countries, China and South Korea, once the earthquake reconstructions start up.

“Furthermore, speculations surround the market that Japan could increase its thermal coal imports due to disruptions to Japan’s nuclear plants. Roughly 20% to 25% of Japan’s electricity is normally derived from thermal coal. Last news suggests that ten of Japan’s nuclear reactors and at least five thermal coal power stations are offline expected to resume operation in two weeks. Approximately there are 55 nuclear reactors in Japan and roughly a third of Japan’s electricity is normally derived from nuclear power. Currently, there is no any time frame for when Japan’s nuclear reactors will come back online. The Fukushima Daichi nuclear power plants that will be closed for an indefinite period of time, is Japan’s fourth largest nuclear power plant and has an installed capacity of approximately 4,100 megawatts.

Furthermore, weather has turned colder in central and northern Japan and has put a greater strain on electricity supply. The shutdown brings memories of July 2007, when seven reactors in the northwest Japan were closed due to an earthquake and remained shutdown till 2009. Japanese thermal coal demand increased moderately during that time and is likely to increase again in the upcoming months” said the Piraeus-based broker.

The tsunami has also wiped out the majority of coal stockpiles at coal fired power plants. Japan is the second largest coal importer in the world after China, importing an average of over 15 million tons of coal per month in 2010, which could drive increased demand for coal as the plants are restocked ( a potential positive for the boost of the dry panamax market). While ports remain closed and the current impact on dry bulk commodities’ demand is negative, it is expected that once ports reopen and the country begin its restructuring will result in increased chartering activity, since Japan is the world’s second largest customer for dry bulk commodities after China. The increase in demand for thermal coal will be positive influence for large size vessels (panamaxes and capesizes), while demand for steel and forest products will stimulate the handy and supramax market.

Meanwhile the US Grains Council reported significant damage to large numbers of agricultural facilities and production areas suggesting that the country may need to increase corn and wheat imports. Japan is currently the largest buyer of US corn and the second largest purchaser of US wheat and rice. Apart from imports, the closure of steel mills may also impact the shipbuilding industry as South Korean shipbuilders import around 25% of their steel plates they used for ship construction from Japanese steelmakers, such as Sumitomo Metal Industries. Industry sources estimate that South Korea’s top three shipbuilders, Hyundai, Samsung Heavy and Daewoo consume up to 600,000 tons of Japanese steel plates annually. “So far there has been a little impact from the quake in Japan, an official at Samsung Heavy Industries said. Japanese suppliers are shipping steel plates to us as usual and we have some stockpiles of steel plates as well.” However, shipbuilder’s earnings may deteriorate down the road due to potential tighter product supply and higher steel prices” said the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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