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Thursday, 24 March 11
DRY BULK MARKET RISES, CAPESIZES GAIN BUT REMAIN LOW EARNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market posted modest gains on Wednesday, with the Baltic Dry Index rising to 1,565 points, up by 1.43 percent on the day, led by gains of 3.12 percent in the Capesize market. It was the second day of gains for the market, on the aftermath of the devastation in Japan,

which is still expected to impact the market, both in a positive way and in a negative way, depending on the type of trade. Still, as analysts noted, the Capesize segment, which is the most overweighed by a huge orderbook and a flurry of new building deliveries, remained among the lowest earning ones for ship owners, with average rates now standing at just over $10,000 per day.

In the short term, the disaster in Japan has resulted in a slower flow of dry bulk commodities to the country, mainly iron ore and coal, although there are some signs of incoming improvement as the Asian country’s industry slowly begins its return to business. This means that power plants will begin to restock their coal inventories, while Japanese steel companies will begin importing iron ore again to rebuild their damaged output. Still, according to Will Fray, a senior analyst with consultants MSI, quoted by Reuters, “I wouldn’t necessarily see recent gains as significant. The interesting thing to see is that capes, where the current supply overhang is most evident, are still the lowest earners. Spot ore import activity is not strong enough to improve rates there -- trade has certainly been slower to China for several months now, linked to a cooling in steel production” he said.

Meanwhile, according to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnley’s, “the capesize market continued to fall through last week bottoming out on Monday at an average time charter rate of USD 9,298. This has now picked up to USD 10,089 which is still not very exciting. Nonetheless, the paper market is enthused and the front end of the curve has picked up somewhat, but not enough to allow a repeat of the 3 year fixture reported last week. There are takers for this period but they are rateing lower numbers and owners are not ready to accept these figures. On the spot market fixtures remain relatively flat and the Atlantic continues to be stronger than the Pacific. In general, uncertainty due to events in Japan and in the Mediterranean are keeping the market weak, though there could be some more near term activity in the Atlantic due to nuclear plants in Germany being taken off line for safety checks” it said.

Regarding the Panamax market, it mentioned that after a slow week with marginal decline in rates the market found support with levels moving upwards from mid week. “This was predominantly driven by ECSA and USG grains and short period activity to cover same with owners now able to secure healthy USD 27,000 with equivalent ballast bonus for front haul. Short period was also fairly active with grain traders and operators booking tonnage in the Far East in the mid 17,000 range. Lack of other fresh mineral business in both hemispheres kept a stable but not very enthusiastic sentiment. North Pacific and Pacific business is fixable at mid to upper teens while Atlantic rounds close to 17,000/day. One year period is being secured at 16,500-17,000 but takers are reluctant to pay owners similar levels for longer duration” said the shipbroker.

As for the smaller segments, which are supported by current robust grain trade activity, Fearnley’s added that “the Atlantic market remains stable with more activity from the Black Sea to Feast paying in the mid 20´s on supras. The USG remains firm paying in the mid 20´s for trips into the MED and low/mid 30´s for trips FE. Nevertheless tonnage is piling up again with ballasters which will push rates downwards in a few weeks unless activity picks up more to absorb tonnage. In the Pacific, there is a tight tonnage supply on prompt positions in China/SEA for mostly handy up to 45,000 dwt which means rates are on the rise for those sizes. Supras on the other hand, are in abundance. There has also been a high amount of short period activity with charterers scrambling/hoping to take tonnage ´on the cheap´. The Far East remains reasonably tight on prompt tonnage, however with activity low and owners resisting. The market for North Pacific/Indo/India for tonnage delivering North China is in the USD 16,000 range” the report concluded.
Source:
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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