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Friday, 11 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET HEATING UP ON FRESH CARGO DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market is on a high this week, with owners of smaller vessels turning their attention towards the spot market, in order to take advantage of the improved conditions.

As China slowly is expected to renter the market, with fresh cargo demands, freight rates are expected to rebound even more than today’s levels. Yesterday was one the most positive days in recent weeks for the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which rebounded by 4.03% to reach 1,136 points. The Capesize segment was the star of the day, leading gains with a rise of 5.77%, closely followed by the Panamax market, which has been on a high for several days now. Still, smaller Panamaxes can fetch higher earnings than their Capesize bigger “brothers” in a clear indication that the anomalies of the market aren’t yet over.

In its latest report, shipbroker Fearnley’s stated (for the capesize sector) that “for first time in many years, the market has remained inactive during Chinese New Year. As we were approaching the end of the Chinese holidays, there were growing expectations about more activity, seen in the ffa market; Panamax and Capes substantially up. However, with the Chinese back in office, it became clear that they were adding more ships rather than cargoes into the equation. Nevertheless, despite an unknown number of ballasters and ships at anchor around, rates were improving slightly the first day in the year of the rabbit, west Australia round up to usd 6.50 pmt, and Tub/Qingdao excess usd 17 pmt. However, due to the mentioned number of vsls in ballast, there are still some challenges ahead” said the shipbroker.

Regarding the booming of late Panamax market it said: “It was a quiet start to the week on Monday, but this took a turn on Tuesday with more activity in the Panamax market. This turn was much lead by anticipations for Wednesday when the Chinese were back. We saw more cgo in the market on Tuesday but not to the extent that it should give support to a sky rocketing market for the next couple of days. The short/medium period market did however firm up and 17k was done for both 4/6 mos (kmax) and 8/9 mos (LME). This found support in the FFA market where the big grain houses drove the trade upwards lead on anticipations. This again took a turn on Wednesday when the paper market took a beating in the morning, causing several deals to fail. The Tarv´s are getting fixed in the region of usd 13-14k while candidates willing trip from Cont to FEast at low 20´s. Pac rounds firmed up from last week and are now paying around 10k while the backhauls are getting around 4k” said the report.

As for the smaller handy segment “Atlantic is still weak with little fresh enquiry and an accumulation of spot tonnage. Owners are reluctant to send tonnage thru Suez due to uncertainties caused by the Egyptian crisis. USG has been absorbing tonnage (mostly petcoke/ grain) on an APS basis and low 20´s levels for trips to Med/Cont. A 55kdwt was rumoured fixed for 2/4 months at usd 18k dely NCSA redel Atl. ECSA Supras are being fixed in the low teens APS with BB for trips in Atl. The general sentiment is that the market has bottomed out and a small recovery is expected. Outlook: Gradually recovering market. Activity remained quiet this week but expected to increase a bit as Chinese are coming back from holidays. Supra rates improved a little over usd 6k bss N.China dely for Indo-India and Thailand rounds. From WCI, owns asking around usd 17k and ECI to east usd 13k. RBCT rounds around usd 15k bss WCI. Short period Supra rates still around usd 14k. Hmax cargoes from R.Sea to India are fixed around mid 20s on voyage” concluded Fearnley’s.

Meanwhile, dry cargo ship owners with smaller vessels are taking advantage of current spot market conditions, especially when it comes to sugar and grain trades, traditionally handled by supramax and handysize ships. With demand for grains soaring globally has benefited smaller vessel owners, which in turn have responded by switching part of their fleet towards the spot market, in a bid to secure more earnings. This has been the case with Eagle Bulk Shipping, which has placed half of its supramax vessels to the spot market.
Source:
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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