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Tuesday, 08 February 11
DRY BULK: IS THE TIDE TURNING? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In what could be perceived as a change of market sentiment for the better, the dry bulk industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) posted its first rise since the middle of January, inching forwards by a mere 0.19% to 1,045 points. The main reason for this development was the rapid recovery of the Panamax market segment, with the relative Panamax Index rising by 3.49%. By contrast, sentiment in the Capesize front was still negative, moving down by 1.39%, which means that average capesize earnings are back again to lower grounds, compared to their smaller counterparts (Panamaxes).
Brokers said a modest resumption of coal exports from Australia had bolstered sentiment. Buyers in China would also return this week from Lunar New Year holidays. "Australia is gradually coming back to life. There were disruptions in Brazil in January due to floods they are also gradually picking up momentum," said Georgi Slavov, head of dry research and structured products at broker ICAP Shipping, quoted by Reuters.
According to the latest weekly report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the BDI lost an additional 8.27% last week, marking its lowest point (1,043 points) since early January of 2009, when the shipping industry was still trying to recover from the financial meltdown of late 2008, which brought global trade to a halt. In its report, the Piraeus-based shipbroker said that “although the supras and handies are dropping rapidly we feel that the Capes and Panamaxes are “large” enough to push the BDI out of its misery and give it a positive start next week. 14 consecutive falling days for the BDI are with the BDI really in less than 2 months to have lost more than 65%. All other sub-indices were this week once more declining, and were all seriously red performers. It was the panamax sector that was mostly affected by the downfall, followed by the Supramax size segment that was seriously “in the red”. The larger Capes declined further recording 24 consecutive falling days, The Panamaxes record 13 consecutive negative days, while the both the Supras and Handies count 6 falling days in a row” it said.
Commenting on the Capesize market, it stated that last week’s loss stood at 5.04%, but it also predicted that with the Chinese New Year holidays getting past us, we should expect more orders for fresh cargoes inbound for China will happen. In his analysis, John Cotzias said that “more uncertainty and more unpredictability are the key essential dishes that make our daily menus. We all try to see and predict if the worst is over, of the markets may finally level out for a start and start improving, however the answer is just not there. Reasons why the markets are performing badly can not be found in all macroeconomic indicators, as the macro country data shows that the world economies are overcoming heir post crisis problems and are starting to shape up.
It is not the world industrial output, nor economic growth, nor world trade that is lacking cargoes for our shipping industry… it is just that there are already too many ships out there to be absorbed normally by the increasing at a lower pace demand for these. Add to the fact that ships vs cargoes run at an imbalance the facts that Acts of God and other political events have reshaped the world and have altered the shipping trade routes. Egypt, a political revolt, by the Egyptian people who want to fight for their right of a better tomorrow, may be the start of a series of dominoes that will hit other neighboring countries and will create even more world political uncertainty and above all enter more unknown factors in our equations that we all try to find answers to” he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 17 February 11
UNCERTAINTY AND VOLATILITY - FEARNBULK
Handy
Recovering market as evidenced by the solid USD 16k/day achieved by a handymax from Continent to east Med with scrap. More short period requ ...
Tuesday, 15 February 11
INDONESIAN COAL FOR HARYANA THERMAL PLANTS - PUNJAB NEWS LINE
To tide over the recurring coal shortage at thermal plants Haryana Power Generation Corporation Limited (HPGCL) has gone for Malaysian coal for its ...
Tuesday, 15 February 11
TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY TO CHOKE FREIGHT RATES IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In a new report assessing the dry bulk market, BIMCO’s analysis suggests that freight rates for Capesize vessels are likely to remain depresse ...
Sunday, 13 February 11
COAL MARKETS 2011 TO HIGHLIGHT INDONESIAN COAL AND NEW SOURCES OF COAL SUPPLY
“Over 300 senior decision-makers from coal mining, power and trading companies expected to congregate in Singapore”
Press Release - K ...
Sunday, 13 February 11
YEAR OF RABBIT PUSHING FREIGHT MARKET UP
COALspot.com – “The market finally moved up with firmness in all sectors with some positive signs of markets recovering”, said Cap ...
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