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Friday, 28 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSING IN TOWARDS CRISIS LEVELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The trials and tribulations of the dry bulk market seem to have no end during the first month of 2011, as the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index, is ending yet another week of violent falls, with yesterday’s session bringing the market down to just 1,186 points, losing an additional 3.89% on a daily basis.
It’s pretty obvious by now that the Australian floods saga, coupled with a neverending overcapacity of tonnage is “drowning” freight rates. At this rate, some owners have already began to consider even the solution of layup of some of their vessels, a phenomenon which we haven’t seen since the 2008 and early 2009 global financial meltdown, which brought world trade to a major halt.
Taking a look at the panamax market for instance comes to show the problem. According to Fearnley’s latest weekly report “the Panamax market is heading due South with increasing speed as the Atlantic market definitely has lost its strength both for rounds and fronthaul.
The increasing amount of ballasters appearing from the F.East both for ECSA and for USG are not met by many fresh minerals or grain orders. TA rounds descending towards the 10k/day level and trips Feast approaching 20k. In the Pacific the atmosphere remains weak and rates are hovering between 7k and 9k/day. The Charterers are comfortably in the driving seat holding back their fixing, but the market got a further negative tone as Korea Line were applying for court protection earlier this week. Adding an anticipated slow down before the Chinese New Year and a slowly but steady sliding FFA market the sentiment is clearly beyond bearish”, said the shipbroker.
Similarly, on the Capesize front it mentioned that “continuing full- or part-absence by major Brazilian and Australian miners, combined with the long-awaited collapse of the first sizeable operator, is adding desperation and increased uncertainty to an already miserable segment. The bottom seems to be reached on the WAust/China trade, where prevailing usd 6.65-6.75 pmt is not by far enough to cover operating expenses. With numbers of ballasters on the rise, the Brazil/China fronthaul levels become under increased pressure - down 10% w-o-w to some usd 20k. Short-term outlook remains grim as Chinese New Year celebrations come close - although a mere few brave operators dare buck the trend and book tonnage for short/medium period. 180kdwt/built 2005 done for 4-6 months at usd 16250, 174kdwt/built 2007 done for 5-7 months at usd 18k - both basis spot FEast delivery”, Fearnley’s concluded.
Meanwhile, during the past few days, a series of analysts have given out their estimates for the course of dry bulk freight rates. Dahlman Rose is among the more optimistic one, saying that Capesize earnings will average $35,000 during 2011, up from last year’s $31,000/day. As for other smaller ship types, the group’s analysts believe that they will receive downward pressure. For instance average daily earnings for Panamaxes (and Kamsarmaxes for that matter) will fall to $22,000 from $24,125 during 2010. For the Supramaxes it expects rates to be at $20,000, down from last year’s $20,875, while for the Handy sector it places average rates at $15,000, from $17,675 during 2010.
As for estimates given out by Cantor Fitzerald, Capes are expected to average $23,000, from last year’s $26,500, while Panamaxes will average $19,000 from $21,000. As for the Handymax sector, it’s expected at $16,500 for 2011 (down from $18,000). The analyst gave out predictions for 2012 as well, saying that Capesize earnings will drop even further to average $22,000, while Panamaxes will earn $17,200, Handymaxes $15,250 and Handysizes are set out to average $13,000, down from $14,000 which is the expected 2011 average daily rate.
In yet another prediction, this time from Baltic Exchange itself, Capes are expected to average $26,629 this year and $21,125 in 2012, Panamaxes are set for $20,555 in 2011 and $16,210 in 2012, while Handysize are looking for $12,760 this year and $11,164 next year.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 17 February 11
UNCERTAINTY AND VOLATILITY - FEARNBULK
Handy
Recovering market as evidenced by the solid USD 16k/day achieved by a handymax from Continent to east Med with scrap. More short period requ ...
Tuesday, 15 February 11
INDONESIAN COAL FOR HARYANA THERMAL PLANTS - PUNJAB NEWS LINE
To tide over the recurring coal shortage at thermal plants Haryana Power Generation Corporation Limited (HPGCL) has gone for Malaysian coal for its ...
Tuesday, 15 February 11
TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY TO CHOKE FREIGHT RATES IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In a new report assessing the dry bulk market, BIMCO’s analysis suggests that freight rates for Capesize vessels are likely to remain depresse ...
Sunday, 13 February 11
COAL MARKETS 2011 TO HIGHLIGHT INDONESIAN COAL AND NEW SOURCES OF COAL SUPPLY
“Over 300 senior decision-makers from coal mining, power and trading companies expected to congregate in Singapore”
Press Release - K ...
Sunday, 13 February 11
YEAR OF RABBIT PUSHING FREIGHT MARKET UP
COALspot.com – “The market finally moved up with firmness in all sectors with some positive signs of markets recovering”, said Cap ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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