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Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry bulk carriers to new multi-month lows. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index fell further yesterday to just 1,453 points, losing 1.82% on the day, while the suffering Capesize segment retreated by a further 4.77%.
The BDI has now recorded 21 straight losing sessions, losing almost 34% of its value. According to calculations from John Cotzias, head of N.Cotzias Shipping Group, in 58 sessions spanning at just less of three months, there have been only 10 days, during which the index was positive.
“The Cape index is counting 12 falling days and has overall lost in this period close to 40% of its volume. BDI is currently below levels of 5 Feb 2009 when the index was rising” said Mr. Cotzias. The market hasn’t seen such low levels since November of 2002, except of course the October 2008 market crash.
In a separate analysis, BIMCO’s shipping analyst Peter Sand said that all in all – the worst flooding in Queensland for more than 50 years “is not only bad for Australia, it's also bad for shipping as volumes on coal and iron ore go down considerably - and more vessels are free on the market putting pressure on the spot market for vessels. Average Capesize time charter rate that has been falling since end of November is now down at USD 11,266 per day trading lower every day” said Sand. He went on to state that iron ore which is exported out of West Australia is not directly affected yet even though that area has received much rain also. Lower steel production and thus also lower seaborne volumes of the two key dry bulk commodities is set to impact the market negatively over the next months. Australia is the world's largest overall coal exporter ,No. 2 in thermal coal exports after Indonesia but second to none in coking coal exports. Australia is key global coking coal supplier accounting for 60% of global seaborne exports. Within thermal coal Australia accounts for 20%. Thermal coal is used for power generation and heating, while coking coal is used in the production steel. As we have already seen, coal customers will try to find other ways to satisfy their demand for thermal coal but the real trouble is coking coal - as it is very hard to get from elsewhere. Shortage of Australian coking coal means that the worlds steel producers, primarily located in Asia, can be forced to cut the production of steel and with it also the demand for iron ore. ”A slowdown in steel production and iron ore demand is toxic to dry bulk shipping in general and for the larger vessels, Capesize and Panamax in particular. The iron ore contract prices for Q1-2011 have already been set at 7% higher than the previous quarter - but spot iron ore prices can still fluctuate and will move south on lower demand. China imports 40-50% of its coking coal from Australia. Japan, the world’s largest coking coal importer is heavily impacted also. The flooding may see contract prices for coking coal hiking significantly due to spot prices going sharply up as a result of the tight market. A part of the mechanism behind the contract prices is the spot price development. This may result in coking coal prices moving from USD 225 per tonnes in Q1-2011 up to USD 270-300 per tonnes according to several commodity analysts.
When the mines call force majeure - the steel mills must go to the spot market for coking coal - at a much higher price than the contract price for this important steel production ingredient - if they can get it at all. Alternative sources of coking coal are the US and Canada but reports are that the tight market has impacted prices also there, leading to higher commodity prices. So if coking coal spot goes up on tight supply - iron ore spot price can go down as a consequence of lower demand. A price hike in coking coal will increase the
production cost for steel - in a market already running on low margins” said BIMCO’s analyst.
So where will it go from here? “It is a string of events that cause shipping demand out of Australia to go down. Moreover the market place is plentifully supplied with tonnage so the fact that some of the commodities will be supplied from sources further away will only have very limited impact on the market. The first quarter of 2011 - do not hold great prospects for the dry bulk market - mainly because the oversupply of vessels is getting too heavy even for the "normal" inefficiencies of the market to make impact on the freight rates. The Australian situation is set to affect the market for at least a of couple months - meaning that the situation outlined above will stay a drag on the overall market and freight rates for some time” concluded Sand.
Talking about the potential overcapacity, Cotzias said that there is a total of over 3,500 dry bulk carriers on order pending until 2014 of a total of 250 million tons dwt. “These orders are split chronologically as follows: 1,854 ships are due for 2011 making up a total of 128 mil dwt, 1,106 ships due in 2012 of 87 mil dwt and 360 ships of 30 mil dwt due for 2013-2014. In total there is a massive orderbook only on the Bulkers section and we should not understate the fact that 2011 faces us with more than 55% of the total orderbook and that we should also include in this 114 orders of 4mil dwt that are “carried forward” from 2010”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 10 January 11
DEWA SEEKS ADVICE ON COAL POWER PROJECT -THE NATIONAL
The Dubai utility company gets nine bids from international groups for consultancy role.
The National reported that, Dubai's utility company wil ...
Saturday, 08 January 11
COAL PRICE WILL RISE IN SHORT-TERM DUE TO AUSTRALIA FLOODS - ALBUQUERQUE EXPRESS
Albuquerque Express reported that, Queensland’s mining minister, Stephen Robertson, has warned that the Australian state’s coal mines wi ...
Saturday, 08 January 11
THE INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE HAS JUMPED 8.69 PERCENT IN JANUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has set the January 2011 Indonesian Coal Reference Price for thermal ...
Saturday, 08 January 11
SUPRAMAX VESSELS WERE FIXED AT AROUND $ 9000 PD FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The holiday season affect combined with severe flooding in Queensland ports continues to keep the market and pressure. “Suprama ...
Saturday, 08 January 11
DIFFICULT YEAR FOR SHIPPING - TRANSPORT WEEKLY
Transport Weekly reported that, Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) chairman Sabyasachi Hajara says 2011 will be a difficult year because an excess ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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