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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bulk market’s behavior this year. Those who will succeed may benefit in their business. A recent poll of analysts provided some insight as to where the industry’s benchmark will range during the first quarter of 2011.
According to them, the BDI will range from 1,700 to 2,600, with an average of 2,118 points. They also said that Capesize rates will average $26,000/day (range of $20,000 to $35,600), while for Panamaxes the average daily rate is deemed to be $20,000 (low of $15,000 and high of $23,100).
UOB’s analysts appeared to be the most bullish ones in terms of the BDI’s course during the first quarter saying that it will average at 2,600 points, while among the most conservative ones was ABG with a prediction of 1,700 points. Other experts like Drewry Shipping placed the BDI at 2,280 points, while DNB NOR Markets gave an estimate of 1,955 points. Similarly, Macquarie expects Capesize rates to average $22,500/day and Panamaxes $16,000/day. Fearnley’s sees rates for Capesizes at $27,500/day and Panamaxes at $19,800/day, while Oppenheimer predicts rates of $30,500 for Capesizes and $22,000 for Panamaxes. Finally, Nordea said Capesize rates would average $26,000 and Panamaxes $20,000.
Meanwhile, in its latest weekly report, Barry Rogliano Salles said that after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at 1,773 points. Apart from the slump seen in July, this is the lowest level recorded for 2010. Early predictions that Chinese ore imports would continue to drive the market up in 2010 proved incorrect. Official figures show China imported 560.5m tonnes Jan-Nov, compared to 565.8m in the same period in 2009. Among exporters, Australia was the biggest beneficiary, increasing its exports to China by 2.4% year-on-year, while the other major producers Brazil, India and South Africa saw their exports decline approximately 9%, 7% and 12%. However China continues to diversify its ore sources, and many smaller producers such as Iran, Indonesia, Peru and Chile increased their sales during 2010.
Commenting on the Capesize market the Paris-based shipbroker said that it was a very quiet week, with little happening in the final 10 days of the year. “Overall, the the sentiment appeared flat to weakening, and in the futures market short-term prices fell. January Cape 4TC is now trading at just over US$20,000 per day, compared to over US$23,000 in the week before Christmas. However for 2H 2011 rates remain little changed. Ship deliveries slowed in the final fortnight of the year, but we can expect a ‘bunching’ of deliveries in early 2011 as ships completed in December are held over for the new year” said the report.
Similarly, on the Panamax front, this week was also very quiet as a result of the festive season. “The The TA round market hovered in the mid US$20,000s per day and seemed stable, mainly due to the thin number of candidates open in this area and some ECSA cargoes activity. However, ballasters from the Far East and India were apparent and should balance out the market. Out of India, the market was relatively quiet. Goa’s exports were impacted by the truckers’ strike and the iron ore ban continues. The WCI-China route was traded in the mid S$10,000s. The ECI market was relatively quiet except for Haldia. In the Far East, the market did not improve and levels reached US$8-8,500 per day for a Nopac round. The short period activity was sluggish and the last reported fixtures were hanging around the mid US$10,000s for Tess 74 delivery North China or India redelivery worldwide. One-year period candidates were traded around US$16- 17,000 per day” BRS concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry ...
Wednesday, 12 January 11
BULKER DELIVERIES WEIGHING IN ON FREIGHT RATES KEEPING SENTIMENT ON A NEGATIVE MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A flurry of new buildings still hitting the water has caught up for good with the freight market, with capesizes unable to weather the storm. With r ...
Tuesday, 11 January 11
SUPRAMAX TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA US$ 8,000 PER DAY
Despite continued growth in the bulk trades, the delivery of new vessels is beginning to take its toll. The BDI continued its decline, finishing las ...
Tuesday, 11 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s benchmark index, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) lost further ground in the beginning of the week, following the trend of the ...
Monday, 10 January 11
MINING INVESTMENT TARGET TOO LOW - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
TEMPO Interactive reported that, the Indonesian Mining Association’s executive director, Priyo Pribadi, believes the government’s invest ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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