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Wednesday, 22 December 10
CAPESIZE FUTURES MARKET RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR DRIFT DOWN IN 2011 - BRS


Nearly two months of weekly declines in the Baltic Capesize Index were finally halted last week with a small 1% increase Friday-to-Friday. The improvement was mainly due to a surge in demand from the big miners in the Pacific in the later part of the week. However the Capesize 4TC is now hovering around US$25,000 per day, the lowest point since the summer and well down on the average for the year.

In India, Karnataka ore sellers will have to wait until mid January to hear a decision on their bid to overturn the state’s export ban. This week India’s top court gave the state additional time to respond to the miners’ legal petition. The Federation of Indian Mineral Industries has already estimated the ban will reduce India’s ore exports by 38% to 66m tons in 2010. The Karnataka High Court earlier upheld the provincial government’s decision to halt shipments overseas.

Supramax/Handy
The Baltic Supramax Index went down by 57 points to finish at 1,613 points last week, while the average of the time charter routes lost about US$ 600 daily to finish at US$ 16,800 per day.  The market was active in the Atlantic but many vessels were turning spot towards the week creating some downward pressure in all basins, mainly in the Black Sea and ECSA. Some support was maintained though as activity continued on sugar and grain due to requirements out of ECSA. Activity remained pretty firm in the USG/USEC region, the main commodities being grain, scrap and petcoke, trading mainly back to the Continent/Med range. On the smaller sizes, the Baltic Handysize index was steady, only gaining 9 points over the week to finish at 839 points, with the time charter routes gaining US$ 839 to reach US$ 12,300 daily.

The TARV was worth US$ 13,500 per day, whereas the Pacific round voyage traded close to US$ 11,000 daily. On the period front, a 58,000 dwt newbuilding fixed ex yard China for one year trading redelivery worldwide at a rate close to US$ 16,500 daily. Short period was getting fixed at US$ 16,000 daily for delivery Far East and redelivery worldwide. For the smaller sizes, Handysize are getting for short period basis delivery Far East numbers in the US$ 12,000 per day region.

Panamax  
The Panamax 4TC average lost US$ 2,314 this week and closed on Friday at around US$ 16,000 per day.  Rates seemed to be under pressure mainly in the east where Owners began revealing their tonnage in order to find employment over the festive period.  Too few fresh cargoes here saw rates drop over US$ 3,000 during the course of the week. 

The Atlantic remained firmer with a number of prompt ships and cargoes being covered, however there was an increased reluctance from the Owners to take their vessels back East.  Atlantic rates ended the week at US$ 21,000 after dropping around US$ 1,000 on Friday which many attributed to more ships appearing open on the Cont/Med prior to Christmas. Short period activity was relatively scarce last week but a few fixtures indicated that short period levels were close to US$ 17,000 whilst a number of vessels were taken for a period of around two years at US$ 18,000 daily.

Capesize
A marginal increase in the BCI this week as activity in the Pacific picked up slightly on the back of miners’ interest. However this could not be maintained into the new week, and the index lost 50 points on Monday. This has now taken the 4TC down to below the US$ 25,000 per day mark, although some of the softness can be attributed to the wind-down before Christmas. Based on trading in the futures market, rates are expected to continue their drift down in 2011, with 1H 2011 looking slightly more optimistic still than second half. Ship deliveries have slowed at the year end, but we can expect a resurgence in January with many owners postponing their December deliveries to the new year in order to have the more attractive ‘2011 built’ tag. 
Source: BRS



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