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Thursday, 09 December 10
OVERSUPPLY OF SHIPS BOUND TO KEEP DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SUBDUED DURING 2011 SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 An oversupply of vessels is expected to keep freight rates from flying as high as in recent years said a relative shipping report from BIMCO’s analyst Peter Sand. Still, there will be moments in 2011 where rates will spike due to inefficiencies in loading and discharge ports.
Steelmakers in China, the world’s biggest iron ore buyer, need to raise prices to pass on higher raw-material costs as demand slows in Winter. But Winter is a slow season for steel consumption, as construction work in Northern China will normally be suspended. Steelmakers are therefore left with eroding profits and may slow down demand for imported ore resulting in lower freight rates, particularly in the Capesize segment.
“Thus BIMCO reiterates its forecast of increasingly volatile Capesize freight rates movements going forward. Meanwhile, the smaller segments are predicted to continue along the recent trend as being less correlated with Capesize rates but also remain in semi-depressed condition, with Handysize trading in the intervals between USD 10,000-15,000 per day with Supra and Panamax trading in USD 15,000-20,000 per day for the coming months. An influx of new tonnage into all segments is expected to limit the upside in freight rates. Vale, the world’s largest iron ore exporter, is scheduled to take delivery of the first nine 400,000 DWT Very Large Ore Carriers out of its total orderbook of 17 VLOC’s during 2011. In a falling freight rate environment for Capesize vessels this could turn out to be an expensive adventure into ship owning. But at the end of the day, Vale may receive from the markets what it wants most – low charter rates – due to massive oversupply of Capesize vessels and VLOC’s” said Peter Sand.
Supply-wise, the number of ships and amount of deadweight in the orderbook has been stable throughout the last two months. This indicates that orders are placed at the same pace that ships are being delivered. In particular, dry bulk owners have not hesitated to rush back to the yards to order new vessels. This happens only one year after owners rushed to the yards for cancellation inquiries and postponements request to do whatever it would take to avoid the once ordered vessels from being built or delivered on time.
According to the report, the active fleet has grown by 14.2% so far in 2010, caused by deliveries of 67 million DWT in the form of 818 new built vessels offset by just 5 million DWT being demolished. Year-to-date deliveries in Capesize segment amount to 168 ships comprising 30.2 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 19.5% so far in 2010. At the beginning of 2009, 823 Capesize vessels were active, less than two years later that number has grown to 1123 vessels – a fleet increase in DWT of 42% in less than two years. Despite a large number of deliveries in 2010 the orderbook to active fleet ratio remained as high as 53% by end-November.
In terms of demand it remains strong in volumes with European trades picking up, thus acting as a supplement to Asian demand. BIMCO said that volumes are set for 7% growth in 2011 following this year’s 9% growth. During the 2nd half of 2010 Capesize rates have been increasingly volatile and running their own show, while smaller segments have been much calmer, with rates staying quite firm but with a slightly downward tendency over recent months. Capesize rates increased more than 200% from July to October only to weaken once again as Chinese iron ore demand is levelling out going into the Winter season and lower steel production, but also due to a massive inflow of new Capesize vessels, which is constantly reminding owners that Capesize earnings cannot defy gravity forever.
“In Asia, thermal coal demand, particularly in China and India, remains strong. However, restraints on global thermal coal supplies are becoming more of a factor in the market. In the last few months, Indonesia has experienced sporadic periods of heavy rain which have affected production and delayed exports. Moreover, global weather-related supply limitations affecting also Australia and Columbia will likely lead to export delays and port congestion. Going into the Winter season thermal coal imports, China is expected to set new records in November and December as stocking up for the Winter is going on to prevent shortage of supply. Winter imports could be dwarfing the previous high from January 2010 where 16 million tonnes were landed in China. Increasing coal prices support this view, with prices going from Yuan 780 per tonnes up to Yuan 850 per tonnes at the end of October. Going forward, Chinese coal imports could turn into an even stronger long term market driver than today. Despite the strong coal demand Panamax vessels, being the preferred coal hauler in many trades, still continue to experience a slide in earnings. The segment generally lacks lifting power from the Capesize seg ments as the Capesize to Panamax ratio has remained below the level that normally support splitting of cargoes” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 02 December 10
INDIA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO DEEPEN NEXT YEAR - MONEY CONTROL
Money Control reported that, India's coal deficit will deepen sharply next year, its coal minister said on Tuesday, forcing Asia's third largest e ...
Thursday, 02 December 10
CIL INCHES CLOSER TO PEABODY STAKE DEAL - THE TELEGRAPH INDIA
The Telegraph India reported that, state-run Coal India Ltd (CIL) hopes to complete negotiations to buy over 10 per cent in Australian miner Peabody ...
Thursday, 02 December 10
DRY BULK MARKET WEIGHED DOWN BY CAPESIZE BLUES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The negative sentiment currently undergoing in the capesize market has kept the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) on the ...
Monday, 29 November 10
NUCLEAR SUPERTANKERS TO SHAKE UP SHIPPING - THIS IS MONEY
This is money reported that, plans are under way that could see nuclear-powered supertankers sailing the world’s shipping lanes, refuelling on ...
Sunday, 28 November 10
FREIGHT MARKET SEEMS TO BE NERVOUS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to remain uncertain even though only cape index was down by 8.31 pct.
Overall the market seems to be ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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