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Thursday, 09 December 10
OVERSUPPLY OF SHIPS BOUND TO KEEP DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SUBDUED DURING 2011 SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 An oversupply of vessels is expected to keep freight rates from flying as high as in recent years said a relative shipping report from BIMCO’s analyst Peter Sand. Still, there will be moments in 2011 where rates will spike due to inefficiencies in loading and discharge ports.
Steelmakers in China, the world’s biggest iron ore buyer, need to raise prices to pass on higher raw-material costs as demand slows in Winter. But Winter is a slow season for steel consumption, as construction work in Northern China will normally be suspended. Steelmakers are therefore left with eroding profits and may slow down demand for imported ore resulting in lower freight rates, particularly in the Capesize segment.
“Thus BIMCO reiterates its forecast of increasingly volatile Capesize freight rates movements going forward. Meanwhile, the smaller segments are predicted to continue along the recent trend as being less correlated with Capesize rates but also remain in semi-depressed condition, with Handysize trading in the intervals between USD 10,000-15,000 per day with Supra and Panamax trading in USD 15,000-20,000 per day for the coming months. An influx of new tonnage into all segments is expected to limit the upside in freight rates. Vale, the world’s largest iron ore exporter, is scheduled to take delivery of the first nine 400,000 DWT Very Large Ore Carriers out of its total orderbook of 17 VLOC’s during 2011. In a falling freight rate environment for Capesize vessels this could turn out to be an expensive adventure into ship owning. But at the end of the day, Vale may receive from the markets what it wants most – low charter rates – due to massive oversupply of Capesize vessels and VLOC’s” said Peter Sand.
Supply-wise, the number of ships and amount of deadweight in the orderbook has been stable throughout the last two months. This indicates that orders are placed at the same pace that ships are being delivered. In particular, dry bulk owners have not hesitated to rush back to the yards to order new vessels. This happens only one year after owners rushed to the yards for cancellation inquiries and postponements request to do whatever it would take to avoid the once ordered vessels from being built or delivered on time.
According to the report, the active fleet has grown by 14.2% so far in 2010, caused by deliveries of 67 million DWT in the form of 818 new built vessels offset by just 5 million DWT being demolished. Year-to-date deliveries in Capesize segment amount to 168 ships comprising 30.2 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 19.5% so far in 2010. At the beginning of 2009, 823 Capesize vessels were active, less than two years later that number has grown to 1123 vessels – a fleet increase in DWT of 42% in less than two years. Despite a large number of deliveries in 2010 the orderbook to active fleet ratio remained as high as 53% by end-November.
In terms of demand it remains strong in volumes with European trades picking up, thus acting as a supplement to Asian demand. BIMCO said that volumes are set for 7% growth in 2011 following this year’s 9% growth. During the 2nd half of 2010 Capesize rates have been increasingly volatile and running their own show, while smaller segments have been much calmer, with rates staying quite firm but with a slightly downward tendency over recent months. Capesize rates increased more than 200% from July to October only to weaken once again as Chinese iron ore demand is levelling out going into the Winter season and lower steel production, but also due to a massive inflow of new Capesize vessels, which is constantly reminding owners that Capesize earnings cannot defy gravity forever.
“In Asia, thermal coal demand, particularly in China and India, remains strong. However, restraints on global thermal coal supplies are becoming more of a factor in the market. In the last few months, Indonesia has experienced sporadic periods of heavy rain which have affected production and delayed exports. Moreover, global weather-related supply limitations affecting also Australia and Columbia will likely lead to export delays and port congestion. Going into the Winter season thermal coal imports, China is expected to set new records in November and December as stocking up for the Winter is going on to prevent shortage of supply. Winter imports could be dwarfing the previous high from January 2010 where 16 million tonnes were landed in China. Increasing coal prices support this view, with prices going from Yuan 780 per tonnes up to Yuan 850 per tonnes at the end of October. Going forward, Chinese coal imports could turn into an even stronger long term market driver than today. Despite the strong coal demand Panamax vessels, being the preferred coal hauler in many trades, still continue to experience a slide in earnings. The segment generally lacks lifting power from the Capesize seg ments as the Capesize to Panamax ratio has remained below the level that normally support splitting of cargoes” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 09 December 10
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR DIRECTION THIS WEEK, AS CAPESIZE SHIPS END THEIR MISFORTUNES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk has began the week on a positive note capitalizing on the positive sentiment which finally prevailed during the last days of the previo ...
Monday, 06 December 10
NTPC MAY OPT FOR INDONESIA OVER AFRICA, OZ FOR COAL MINES
Country's largest power producer NTPC, which is scouting for coal properties abroad to fuel its power plants back home, may zero in on Indonesia fo ...
Saturday, 04 December 10
INDONESIA TO INDIA AND CHINA SEA FREIGHT UP BY ABOUT US$ 2.50 PMT - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market even though remained weak, but towards end of the week the market seemed to firm up.
The BDI was almost at sam ...
Saturday, 04 December 10
OFF WEST COAST OF INDIA TONNAGE IS SEEMINGLY QUITE SPARSE - FEARNBULK
Handy
The Atlantic markets are weak and remained unusually calm after the Thanksgiving ...
Friday, 03 December 10
INDONESIAN LOW RANK COAL IS ATTRACTING COAL BUYERS FROM INDIA AND CHINA
COALspot.com - Bhakti Energi Persada has sold out its whole coal production until the end of 2011, Jeffry Mulyono said during McCloskey Asia P ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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