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Thursday, 09 December 10
OVERSUPPLY OF SHIPS BOUND TO KEEP DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SUBDUED DURING 2011 SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 An oversupply of vessels is expected to keep freight rates from flying as high as in recent years said a relative shipping report from BIMCO’s analyst Peter Sand. Still, there will be moments in 2011 where rates will spike due to inefficiencies in loading and discharge ports.
Steelmakers in China, the world’s biggest iron ore buyer, need to raise prices to pass on higher raw-material costs as demand slows in Winter. But Winter is a slow season for steel consumption, as construction work in Northern China will normally be suspended. Steelmakers are therefore left with eroding profits and may slow down demand for imported ore resulting in lower freight rates, particularly in the Capesize segment.
“Thus BIMCO reiterates its forecast of increasingly volatile Capesize freight rates movements going forward. Meanwhile, the smaller segments are predicted to continue along the recent trend as being less correlated with Capesize rates but also remain in semi-depressed condition, with Handysize trading in the intervals between USD 10,000-15,000 per day with Supra and Panamax trading in USD 15,000-20,000 per day for the coming months. An influx of new tonnage into all segments is expected to limit the upside in freight rates. Vale, the world’s largest iron ore exporter, is scheduled to take delivery of the first nine 400,000 DWT Very Large Ore Carriers out of its total orderbook of 17 VLOC’s during 2011. In a falling freight rate environment for Capesize vessels this could turn out to be an expensive adventure into ship owning. But at the end of the day, Vale may receive from the markets what it wants most – low charter rates – due to massive oversupply of Capesize vessels and VLOC’s” said Peter Sand.
Supply-wise, the number of ships and amount of deadweight in the orderbook has been stable throughout the last two months. This indicates that orders are placed at the same pace that ships are being delivered. In particular, dry bulk owners have not hesitated to rush back to the yards to order new vessels. This happens only one year after owners rushed to the yards for cancellation inquiries and postponements request to do whatever it would take to avoid the once ordered vessels from being built or delivered on time.
According to the report, the active fleet has grown by 14.2% so far in 2010, caused by deliveries of 67 million DWT in the form of 818 new built vessels offset by just 5 million DWT being demolished. Year-to-date deliveries in Capesize segment amount to 168 ships comprising 30.2 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 19.5% so far in 2010. At the beginning of 2009, 823 Capesize vessels were active, less than two years later that number has grown to 1123 vessels – a fleet increase in DWT of 42% in less than two years. Despite a large number of deliveries in 2010 the orderbook to active fleet ratio remained as high as 53% by end-November.
In terms of demand it remains strong in volumes with European trades picking up, thus acting as a supplement to Asian demand. BIMCO said that volumes are set for 7% growth in 2011 following this year’s 9% growth. During the 2nd half of 2010 Capesize rates have been increasingly volatile and running their own show, while smaller segments have been much calmer, with rates staying quite firm but with a slightly downward tendency over recent months. Capesize rates increased more than 200% from July to October only to weaken once again as Chinese iron ore demand is levelling out going into the Winter season and lower steel production, but also due to a massive inflow of new Capesize vessels, which is constantly reminding owners that Capesize earnings cannot defy gravity forever.
“In Asia, thermal coal demand, particularly in China and India, remains strong. However, restraints on global thermal coal supplies are becoming more of a factor in the market. In the last few months, Indonesia has experienced sporadic periods of heavy rain which have affected production and delayed exports. Moreover, global weather-related supply limitations affecting also Australia and Columbia will likely lead to export delays and port congestion. Going into the Winter season thermal coal imports, China is expected to set new records in November and December as stocking up for the Winter is going on to prevent shortage of supply. Winter imports could be dwarfing the previous high from January 2010 where 16 million tonnes were landed in China. Increasing coal prices support this view, with prices going from Yuan 780 per tonnes up to Yuan 850 per tonnes at the end of October. Going forward, Chinese coal imports could turn into an even stronger long term market driver than today. Despite the strong coal demand Panamax vessels, being the preferred coal hauler in many trades, still continue to experience a slide in earnings. The segment generally lacks lifting power from the Capesize seg ments as the Capesize to Panamax ratio has remained below the level that normally support splitting of cargoes” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Wednesday, 15 December 10
LARGE ORDERBOOK TO HINDER 2011 DRY BULK MARKET REBOUND DESPITE INCREASED DEMAND SAYS PARAGON SHIPPING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A large orderbook which currently stands at 53% of the existing fleet is expected to render 2011 another challenging year for the dry bulk marke ...
Wednesday, 15 December 10
SMALLER DRY BULK VESSELS ARE LOOKING UP, LARGER ONES FAIL TO DELIVER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market lost further ground at the beginning of the week, in what could prove one of the slowest periods ship owners have been faced. Ye ...
Tuesday, 14 December 10
COAL IMPORTS MAY INCREASE 78% TO CHINA, INDIA: ENERGY MARKETS - BUSINESS WEEK
Business Week reported that, China and India may increase imports of coal by 78 percent to 337 million metric tons next year, further driving up pri ...
Tuesday, 14 December 10
BANPU PLANNING PRODUCTION BOOM - BANGKOK POST
Australian, Indonesian output to lead growth
Bangkok Post reported that, Banpu Plc, Asean's largest coal miner, wants to nearly double its coal ...
Tuesday, 14 December 10
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA AND CHINA REMAINED FIRM - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to be soft with the Cape sector most effected which was down by 289 points and closed at 2,694 poi ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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