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Thursday, 02 December 10
DRY BULK MARKET WEIGHED DOWN BY CAPESIZE BLUES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The negative sentiment currently undergoing in the capesize market has kept the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) on the “minus” area. Yesterday, the BDI ended down by 0.14% to 2,096 points, marking the fifth straight loss for the index. As it turns out, the gains witnessed in all other ship segments are offset by the negative impact of the capesize market.

According to a report released yesterday from Fearnley’s, there are currently hard times for capesize owners as levels – physically as well as derivatives – have dropped drastically across the board. “Spot demand is simply not enough to absorb the massive number of new entries that come in addition to the  existing fleet. Average spot earnings down close to 25% w-o-w, coming in at around usd 26k. Pacific is hard hit in particular, with rates for rounds falling by almost 35% to usd 18k. Atlantic is holding up better, as the ballasters from Far East take most of the general beating – the North Atlantic tonnage/cargo balance is healthy in comparison. A few brave operators dare to book period tonnage despite the overall trend, with usd 28500 done just before diving into the abyss on 180kdwt/2009 for 12 months delivery China 5/15 Dec, also 172kdwt/2001 done for 3-5 months at usd 25k delivery retro China 14 Nov.

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Uncertainty as to whether market about to find a floor or if this is turning into a complete collapse” warned Fearnley’s into what could become a very negative end to yet another turbulent year for the dry bulk shipping sector.Still, despite the Capes losses of 1.41% yesterday (on top of a near 6% loss the day before), all other smaller ship types appear on the upside, with Supramaxes proving to be the most resilient, as a result of increased coal trade. As for the Panamax market, it is now being fueled by some fresh orders and a lack of prompt tonnage, with the Atlantic market maintaining a positive trend this week.

Fearnley’s said that “TA rounds going in the low 20´s and Continent positions even able to reach mid 20´s. Fronthaul fixed at healthy 29k via Cape of G Hope. In the eastern hemisphere there is oversupply of tonnage and despite a fair amount of fresh coal requirements the market is sliding in the mid teen area. Short period market not very active, typically 4-6 months fixed at 18500. The sentiment has lost some optimism by the recent downturn in the Cape market and a slow decline on FFA´s – despite some signs of a recovery mid week. A relevant  question is whether we are already facing a slow down for the coming X-Mas season” mentioned the shipbroker.

In earlier reports, this time from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, it appeared that the Handysize/Handymax era of troubles could very well be over. The Piraeus-based shipbroker said that what is worth mentioning is the stop of the very long constant falling run of the Handies that had recorded more than 34 days of negative Baltic Exchange sessions. During the course of the previous week, the first gains were recorded, while things have also kept improving during this week as well. Cotzias said that the Handies had experienced a two month fall, that reduced the relative Baltic Exchange’s index by more than 300 points and in percentage terms more than 30%.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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