We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 29 October 10
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND DRIVES DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market is posting marginal, yet steady growth this week, with the Baltic Dry Index rising yesterday to 2784 points, up by 0.2%. Both th ...
Wednesday, 27 October 10
TNPL TO AWARD 240,000 MT COAL SUPPLY CONTRACT TO COAL & OIL
COALspot.com: Tamil Nadu Newsprint Papers Limited, Tamil Nadu state owned Newsprint and Printing & Writing Paper producer has opened a coal purc ...
Wednesday, 27 October 10
CHINA AIDS RUSSIA IN DEVELOPING COAL RESOURCES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
People's Daily reported that, Russia will use 6 billion U.S. dollars in loans provided by China to develop coal resources in Sakhalin Island, Elege ...
Wednesday, 27 October 10
MAIDEN COAL SHIPMENTS TO NOBLE RESOURCES - PAN ASIA AUSTRALIA
Press Release :
First Coal Shipments made from Nadvara Coal Project, East Kalimantan
51,616 tonnes delivered from October production &ndas ...
Tuesday, 26 October 10
INDONESIA SHIPPED 5.32 PERCENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER 10
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 21,661,817 MT of coal in September 2010, which is 5.32 percent lesser than Au ...
|
|
|
Showing 5546 to 5550 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
|
| |
| |
|
