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Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
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Wednesday, 17 November 10
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR SUPPORT IN COAL TRADES AND INDIAN IRON ORE EXPORTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping reported that, the dry bulk market is lacking support to end its 13-day slide, as evidenced by Monday’s ...
Tuesday, 16 November 10
'VALLAR PLC' TO BECOME 'BUMI PLC' POST DEAL - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, The United Kingdom’s Vallar Plc will change its name to Bumi Plc following a cash and stock transaction with t ...
Tuesday, 16 November 10
ROTHSCHILD BUYS INDONESIAN COAL STAKES FOR $3 BILLION - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, Nathaniel Rothschild, the only son of U.K. financier Jacob Rothschild, agreed to invest $3 billion in two Indonesian coal c ...
Sunday, 14 November 10
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWN FALL - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com: The freight market continued its down fall with BDI down by 7.29 pct and closed at 2,313 points.
All other segments were also under ...
Saturday, 13 November 10
INDONESIA SHIPPED 8.73 % MORE COAL IN OCTOBER THAN A MONTH EARLIER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 23.55 mln mt of coal in October 2010, which is 8.73 percent more compared to Septe ...
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Showing 5526 to 5530 news of total 6871 |
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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