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Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
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Sunday, 28 November 10
FREIGHT MARKET SEEMS TO BE NERVOUS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to remain uncertain even though only cape index was down by 8.31 pct.
Overall the market seems to be ...
Friday, 26 November 10
INDIA WILL IMPORT 100 MLN TONS OF COAL BY 2012 - LAKSHMINARAYANA
COALspot.com – “India’s coal shortfall will reach 100 million mt by 2011-12”, said Lakshminarayana, Vice Preside ...
Friday, 26 November 10
CHINAS COAL INVENTORY STAYS HIGH FOR 22 MONTHS AT 220 MLN T, ASSOCIATION
Xinhua News Agency reported that, China’s coal inventory has stayed high and unchanged for 22 months to be around 220 million tonnes, reflecti ...
Friday, 26 November 10
DR WOLFGANG CIESLIK TO HEAD GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
COALspot.com – (Press Release): The Management Board of the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V.) has elected D ...
Thursday, 25 November 10
INDONESIAN ROUNDS ARE ACHIEVING IN THE LOW 10S, OWNERS ARE NOT KEEN FOR TRIPS TO INDIA - FEARNBULK
HANDY
Uneventful week - Supra/Panamax stems ex USG to China/Korea/Japan are the main focus + grains ex. Argentina. The Atlantic market activity re ...
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Showing 5511 to 5515 news of total 6871 |
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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