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Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
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Sunday, 28 November 10
FREIGHT MARKET SEEMS TO BE NERVOUS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to remain uncertain even though only cape index was down by 8.31 pct.
Overall the market seems to be ...
Friday, 26 November 10
INDIA WILL IMPORT 100 MLN TONS OF COAL BY 2012 - LAKSHMINARAYANA
COALspot.com – “India’s coal shortfall will reach 100 million mt by 2011-12”, said Lakshminarayana, Vice Preside ...
Friday, 26 November 10
CHINAS COAL INVENTORY STAYS HIGH FOR 22 MONTHS AT 220 MLN T, ASSOCIATION
Xinhua News Agency reported that, China’s coal inventory has stayed high and unchanged for 22 months to be around 220 million tonnes, reflecti ...
Friday, 26 November 10
DR WOLFGANG CIESLIK TO HEAD GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
COALspot.com – (Press Release): The Management Board of the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V.) has elected D ...
Thursday, 25 November 10
INDONESIAN ROUNDS ARE ACHIEVING IN THE LOW 10S, OWNERS ARE NOT KEEN FOR TRIPS TO INDIA - FEARNBULK
HANDY
Uneventful week - Supra/Panamax stems ex USG to China/Korea/Japan are the main focus + grains ex. Argentina. The Atlantic market activity re ...
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Showing 5511 to 5515 news of total 6871 |
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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