We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 13 December 10
ICE FUTURES EUROPE TO LAUNCH IHS MCCLOSKEY INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS FOB MARKER COAL CONTRACTS - MONDOVISIONE
Mondovisione reported that, IntercontinentalExchange (NYSE: ICE), a leading operator of global regulated futures exchanges, clearing houses and over ...
Monday, 13 December 10
NALCO TO START WORK ON RS 18K CR ($ 4,010,695,091) INDONESIAN PROJECT BY JUNE - MSN
MSN reported that, State-owned NALCO today said it has selected UAE-based RAK Minerals as JV partner for its Rs 18,000 crore (US$ 4,010,695,091 ...
Monday, 13 December 10
DEUTSCHE BANK RAISES COAL FORECASTS ON MARKET SHORTAGE - BLOOMBERG
Deutsche Bank AG raised price forecasts for thermal coal by as much as 17 percent on expectations that a shortage of the fuel will widen over the ne ...
Monday, 13 December 10
K SERA SERA TO SPEND RS325CR TO BUY COAL,OIL & GAS FIRMS STAKE - LIVE MINT
The company might have to dole out around Rs 225 crore (US$ 50,122,522) for picking up the majority stake in the coal mine in Indonesia and around R ...
Thursday, 09 December 10
OVERSUPPLY OF SHIPS BOUND TO KEEP DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SUBDUED DURING 2011 SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
An oversupply of vessels is expected to keep freight rates from flying as high as in recent years said a relative shipping report from BIMCO’s ...
|
|
|
Showing 5496 to 5500 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
|
| |
| |
|
