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Monday, 25 October 10
DRY BULK MARKET STILL HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CHINA, POSTS SMALL WEEKLY LOSS OF 1.27% - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


With every twitch and turn from China’s metals industry, the dry bulk market is disproportionally affected, as evidenced by the course of the freight rate this week. According to the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the week ended with a small loss of 1.27% at 2727 points, with Friday being the only positive session after five straight losing ones. According to shipbrokers, this week could be a better one, with cold weather in China seen as the major contributing factor to a potential increase of coal demand. Meanwhile, the capesize segment of the market managed to stay ahead of the pack, with Chinese iron ore demand retaining freight rates to very firm levels (weekly gain of 0.64%), while average earnings are now at a healthy $45,657 per day.

According to Arctic Securities, a a drawdown of iron ore inventories in China and high domestic prices were likely to lead to high iron ore imports the fourth quarter. In its weekly report, N.Cotzias Shipping Group mentioned that although this week’s changes were minimal, high volatility is the key of all markets and the constant upswings followed by quick rapid downfalls that are mostly recovered within the month, have caused a greater degree of uncertainty to the market. “Deals are performed but the overall question of most shipping investors is that these shorter term volatility fluctuations don’t really pose investment opportunities based on “proper timing”. How can you time your investments when secondhand prices are considered to be on the “high” side remaining fairly stable and don’t have the time to follow the ups and downs of the freight markets? In any case what can still be considered a blessing is that the dry bulk market daily earnings are well above any critical survival levels and only expensive ships acquired during the Feb 2007 - Jul 2008 period with a greater degree of leverage, can be considered as possible “sufferers” even at today’s rates” the shipbroker said.

In terms of deals, Golden Destiny reported 31 sales in the secondhand and demolition market this past week. The highest activity has been witnessed in the newbuilding market with 25 orders reported in total. In the secondhand market, 20 vessels reported to have changed hands this week equalling a total amount of money invested around of $367,250,000, with only 1 transaction reported on private terms. In terms of reported number of transactions, the S&P activity has been marked with a 35% negative w-o-w change while is standing at same levels of previous year’s weekly S&P activity in terms on number of transactions. The bulkcarrier sector attracted most interest from the investors’ side, with an investment capital of $274,400,000, around 74% share of the total invested capital in the S&P secondhand market.

“In the demolition market, 11 vessels reported to have been headed to the scrap yards of total deadweight just 443,712, with the most of activity being concentrated on India. In terms of reported number of transactions, the Demolition activity has been marked with 57% positive w-o-w change whereas the demolition activity mostly concentrated on smaller size vessels. In terms of scrap rates, the highest scrap rate has been achieved this week in the dry sector by India for two Ro-Ro / passenger vessels at $ 465/ldt.

At a similar week in 2009, just 3 tanker vessels were reported for scrap equalling a total deadweight of around 172,278 tons, two of them headed Bangladesh and one Pakistan, at a price around $320-330/ldt The Greek presence has been noticed this week in the secondhand market with 5 transactions reported, three in the bulkcarrier sector, one in the tanker sector, however the company is US listed and one in the Gas tanker sector, equalling a total amount invested around US$ 140,600,000, while in the newbuilding market just one order for four Post Panamax Containers was reported at private terms.

In the newbuilding market, 25 vessels reported to have been ordered equalling a total deadweight of 2,975,300 tons, while at similar week in 2009 15 orders have been reported, 10 in the bulkcarrier and 5 in the Tanker sector. The total invested capital in the newbuilding business estimated to be around of of US$ 1,019,800,000, while 16 transactions reported on private terms. In terms of reported number of transactions, the newbuilding business has been marked with a 47% positive w-o-w change with Bulk carriers, Tankers and Containers being in the front line. This week the Greek presence was noticed in the Container sector, with an order for 4 8,500teu vessels, contracted at private terms, however the deal is rumoured to have some subjects attached” reported Golden Destiny.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

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