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Wednesday, 20 October 10
CAPESIZES FINDING SUPPORT IN IRON ORE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


Although the beginning of the week wasn’t the rosiest one for the dry bulk market, last week proved a cheerful one for dry bulk ship owners, especially those who have invested in the capesize market, as rates improved together with an increase of iron ore fixtures. As a result, Capesize rates are currently averaging $45,279/day, an increase of $4,481 (11%) from a week ago. Meanwhile, yesterday (Monday) the industry’s main benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was on the negative side, albeit just slightly, retreating by 0.22% to 2,756 points, virtually unchanged from the previous Friday.

According to Commodore Research’s latest weekly report there were 33 iron ore fixtures reported during the past week, two more on a weekly basis and up moderately from an average of 28 iron ore fixtures reported during the previous four weeks. Commodore said that “24 of last week’s ore fixtures were for capesize vessels, a historically very large amount and the same amount as during the previous week. Chinese iron ore demand has remained robust - but Chinese steel stockpiles have continued to increase sharply and need to be monitored closely. Demand for coal and grain has remained strong, but panamax vessels have come under pressure partially due to a decrease in congestion at various coal ports. Rates for smaller vessels have continued to remain relatively steady”.

In total, 117 spot trip fixtures (1 less than the previous week) and 15 period fixtures (2 less than the previous week) were reported last week. 6 of the period deals were for one year or more. “Period chartering activity remains at a low level not seen since the middle of July when spot rates were near 2010-lows. Sentiment had been improving recently due to a loosening in Chinese government restrictions on electricity allocation to steel mills – but sentiment for the medium-term remains low due to concerns over the orderbook” said the report. In fact, orderbook concerns continue to weigh very heavily on the collective mind of the market however. In the first two weeks of October, an average of 16 period deals have been reported each week. This is down sharply from an average of 22 weekly period fixtures in September and 33 weekly period fixtures in August. Despite capesize spot rates rising significantly from a few months ago, period activity remains subdued and negative sentiment lingers.

According to Commodore, the recent increase in iron ore fixtures has come primarily as a result of robust demand in China. Chinese steel mills continue to receive greater allocations of electricity and production is slowly increasing. The recent growth in Chinese steel stockpiles must be monitored however. If this steel is not consumed, ore fixtures will likely soon come under pressure (it is possible that the last two weeks of holidays in China have delayed steel shipments to end-users). Going forward, we will publish an update on stockpiles if they change dramatically mid-week.

Meanwhile, another unpredictable development is expected to affect the market, as heavy rain in much of Australia is expected to impact coal supply from Queensland, located to the northeast of the country. Queensland exports a large amount of both thermal and coking coal primarily to buyers in China, South Korea, Japan, and India - but there is a good chance that there will be sporadic delays in coal exports in the upcoming months.

This would result in an increase in port congestion and force buyers to import more coal from less proximate exporters including South Africa, Colombia, and the United States.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

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