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Tuesday, 12 October 10
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR DIRECTION AFTER WEEK OF CAPESIZE GROWTH


The dry bulk market ended Monday unchanged from Friday’s closing, today standing at 2,695 points. In summary, the capesize and the supramax segments were higher week on week, with the first gaining 19.22% and the latter 2.77%. Thus, capesize owners had plenty to cheer for in the previous week, a development not quite expected with China effectively out of the market, due to holiday reasons. Still.

As the weekly report from Commodore Research & Consultancy said, “a larger than expected amount of iron ore fixtures came to the market last week which helped propel Cape rates. 31 ore fixtures were reported, only 4 less than the previous week. 24 of the fixtures were for capesize vessels, which was actually 4 more than the previous week. Expectations had been for a moderate decrease in overall ore fixtures due to China’s week-long National Day holiday, but Chinese iron ore fixtures remained relatively firm. A healthy amount of iron ore fixtures from buyers outside of China also helped Cape rates find support. 13 vessels were charted to export iron ore to buyers in countries other than China, 7 more than the trailing four week average. 18 vessels were chartered to export iron ore to buyers in China, 4 less the four week average” said the report.

Meanwhile, iron ore demand and related spot prices have been able to hold steady even as the Chinese government continues to partially restrict electricity allocation to steel mills. These restrictions have lessened recently, though, and going forward Chinese steel mills are expected to slowly increase steel production.

“Market sentiment has slowly improved, evident by last week’s increase in period deals. Market players had previously been spooked by the electricity restrictions in China but iron ore demand has managed to remain relatively firm. Two weeks ago, the 11 period fixtures concluded last week were the lowest amount of period fixtures reported in a single week since the week ending July 16. At that time, dry bulk spot rates were near 2010 lows. Last week marked the first time since early September, however, that week on week period chartering activity increased”. In total, Commodore reports 118 spot trip fixtures for the week (nine less on the week) and 17 period fixtures (six more than the previous week).

In another weekly report, N.Cotzias Shipping Group examined the potential overcapacity of dry bulk tonnage and how it will impact the freight markets. According to Cotzias, the expected ships until the end of 2010 are alarming, with 6 VLOC’s of 1.8 million tons, 61 Capes of 11 million tons, 21 Post Panamaxes of 2.1 million tons, 74 Panamaxes of 6 million tons, 153 Supramaxes of 9 million tons, 7 Handymaxes of 300,000 tons, 201 Handies of 6 million tons and 221 bullkers (between 10,000 and 20,000 dwt) of 2 million tons, not to mention an additional smaller dry bulk carriers (including MPP, General Cargo) of 400,000 tons. In total until the end of the year, the additional carrying capacity of the global dry bulk fleet, based on the expected deliveries should be 38.6 million tons, a figure difficult to be offset by the increased cargo demand. Of course, the economies of the developed world haven’t to contribute to global shipping trades, with China still ruling the fortunes of rates.

For the time being, “the effects in the freight markets of the Russian grain embargo, and the closure of 10 major ports following the Karnataka ban in India, are fairly visible and the added per ton mile, that has altered the typical trading routes seem to have added on the positive side, keeping the freight levels to acceptable, fairly good levels that are for the time being balancing the added influx of tonnage that has already become part of the world active fleet. We expect that this added dynamics of the market together with some much awaited improvement from the developed world, whose economies are not really feeding with steam the global shipping trades, would be the wishful expectations from either Q4 2010 or even better Q1 2011” said Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

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