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Monday, 27 September 10
DRY BULK: FREIGHT RATES CONTINUE TO FALL ON LOW ACTIVITY - HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market didn’t manage to change its fortunes during the past week, with holidays across many Asian countries, predominantly China, had a negative impact on chartering activity. As a result freight rates came under further pressure, with iron ore fixtures posting a continued decline and overall spot chartering activity also facing decreases.

According to the latest weekly report issued by Commodore Research, “iron ore fixtures remain relatively low due to the ongoing restrictions on electricity allocation to Chinese steel mills. Overall chartering activity also came under pressure last week due to holidays in Asia. 19 iron ore fixtures were reported last week, a decrease from 24 iron ore fixtures reported during the previous week. 15 of last week’s iron ore fixtures were for capesize vessels, an increase from 12 capesize vessels chartered to haul ore during the previous week. Global coal and grain demand have remained moderate but have not been robust enough to stem the fall in spot freight rates” the report said.

As a result of this negative trend, Capesize rates are currently averaging $29,002/day, a decrease of $4,810 (-14%) from a week ago. Panamax rates are now averaging $21,840/day, a decrease of $1,685 (-7%). Supramax rates are averaging $19,644/day, a decrease of $1,397 (-7%). Handysize rates are averaging $15,666/day, a decrease of $298 (-2%).

At the same time period chartering activity also remained subdued, with 92 spot trip fixtures (28 less than the previous week) and 16 period fixtures (1 less than the previous week) were reported last week. Commodore said that none of the period deals were for a year or more. “Sentiment remains somewhat negative due to the going electricity restrictions to steel mills in China. Last week marked the first time in eleven weeks that no period deals for a year or more were reported. At that time, sentiment was very negative due to spot freight rates approaching 2010 lows.

The report mentioned that “market players remain spooked by the recent decision by the Chinese government to reduce electricity allocation to Chinese steel mills - but so far Chinese steel production has reportedly only decreased by 2%. The electricity restrictions will continue to represent a significant threat to near-term dry bulk freight rates, however, and must continue to be monitored extremely closely. Several analysts have forecast that Chinese steel output will decline by as much as 10% due to the ongoing electricity restrictions.

Based on August’s 51.64 million tons of crude steel production, this would put post-restriction monthly output at approximately 46.5mt, an amount not seen since May 2009. We continue to anticipate that Chinese steel demand will exceed most expectations. Chinese stockpiles have remained steady in recent weeks and there is little reason to believe that immediate steel demand has significantly decreased. We expect Chinese steel production to range between 48 to 49mt of crude steel in September and October.

The Chinese government cannot afford to have steel prices surge due to an artificial restraint on supply. Inflation is already a growing concern in China. The National Development and Reform Commission has also criticized the electricity allocation restrictions” concluded Commodore.

In terms of the secondhand and demolition activity of the past week, shipbroker Golden Destiny said that in total there were 39 sales reported. The activity was high at both the S&P and the newbuilding market with 32 & 34 orders reported in total respectively. “The secondhand market has been marked with a 100% positive yearly change with 32 vessels reported to have changed hands this week equalling a total amount of money invested more than US$796,800,000, since in 9 transactions the price hasn’t been disclosed. In the demolition market, 7 vessels have been headed to the scrap yards of total deadweight 218,513 tons, while in 2009 14 vessels reported for scrap indicating a negative yearly change of 100%. In the newbuilding market, 34 vessels reported to have been ordered equalling a total deadweight around 1,683,000 tons. The dry sector has held the largest share of newbuilding contracts, equalling a total deadweight of 1,076,000 tons, with orders from kamsarmaxes, panamaxes & supramaxes being the most popular vessel types. The Greek presence has been noticed this week only in the secondhand market with 6 transactions, two in the in the post panamax bulkcarrier sector and four in the small panamax container sector. The cumulative amount invested by Greek investors in the secondhand market can be calculated only by the bulkcarrier acquisitions around $ 82,000,000, since the price of the Container enbloc transaction has not been disclosed” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

 

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