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Thursday, 23 September 10
DRY BULK RATES EXPECTEDLY FALL TO ONE MONTH LOWS - HELLENIC SHIPPING


With of the Far East trade routes closed this week on various national holidays, demand for ocean transportation of raw materials has been significanlty reduced , pushing the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to new lows, proving that volatility is here to stay. The BDI posted on Wednedsay its eight straight loss-making session, ending 76 points lower to 2486, which is the lowest it’s been in over a month. With iron ore demand waning, the Capesize segment was the one that suffers the most, retreating once again yesterday by 140 points, with the respective Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) now down to 3108 points.

According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnley’s, “with holidays in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan the Capesize market has been overall quiet this week. Rates have been dropping day by day and presently AustraliaChina is around USD 10 pmt, and TubaraoQingdao 25ish. After a good number of short period fixtures the past weeks, the period market is presently none existing. FFA values have been dropping, but finding some support at time of writing. With a lot of uncertainty in the market in general and lack of fresh cargoes it is difficult to predict if a floor is found or not. A quiet end of the week is expected” commented the shipbroker.

As for the Panamax “front” the report said that it experienced the same softening in rates as last week. “Some glimmers of hope were present when NoPac rounds suddenly jumped up usd 2000 in one day on Tuesday, but this was just not the trend as the rates declined to the usd 20000 again on Wednesday. We see more grain cargoes from USG, but the ballasters outnumber the cgos causing rates to slip further. With holidays in the Far Eastern countries the activity lvl has dropped as expected, but fronthauls still gets ard low/mid 30´s and tarvs ard low/mid 20´s. It seems that the closing down of Chinese steel mills by government is part of a 5-year energy saving goal set by the Chinese government ending at the end of the year. This explains the sudden and increasing governmental shut down of inefficient steel mills now towards the end of the 5-year period saving plan. This affects the iron ore market and the  shipment of same heavily” said Fearnley’s.

Markets in China will stay closed throughout the week for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. They also will shut from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for the National Day holidays. As a result of that, market analysts and shipbrokers don’t expect any serious shipping activity. This will pull the freight market to even lower levels, before it stages a new rebound later in October.

Meanwhile, according to analysts at Arctic Securities ASA in Oslo, which were quoted in a Bloomberg story: “we view near-term weakness in dry-bulk as likely, with the combination of continued high delivery pace and a soft patch in steel production spelling trouble for the dry-bulk market also longer term”, adding, this time to Reuters, that “with momentum currently working against ship owners, we expect (capesize) rates to soften towards $25,000/day before finding a floor." In a separate Reuters quote, Peter Norfolk, research director at broker FIS, “the reason behind the slowdown has been energy conservation measures which China has announced. They have told parts of industry including steel mills to cut production and that has had an impact on both on the iron ore demand and the steam coal" said Norfolk, who also mentioned that the market could see another short-term rebound, warning though that conditions remained fairly weak. Maybe this could be a good time for some ship owners to reconsider their stance towards the scrapping of their older vessels, with prices offered from most shipbreakers deemed rather attractive.
Source:
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

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