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Monday, 06 September 10
DRY BULK MARKET GAINS 6.05% ON WEEK, BOOSTED BY CAPESIZE VESSELS


The dry bulk market is looking to capitalize last week’s gains of more than 6 percent in this week, as the capesize segment seems to be on a high, as a result of increased iron ore buying from Chinese steel mills. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index, has now reached 2876 points, flirting with the 3,000 point mark once again. The yearly average for the BDI stands at 2905 points. According to the latest weekly report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the dry bulk market will end the year at even higher levels, with a potential to march forward even beyond the 5500 point mark. The broker says that “for this increase to be effective, some resistance levels have to be met and surpassed and some other conditions have to be met”.

For the time being, the main indices of the capesizes and the panamaxes edged forward this past week, with the first one gaining a rather impressive 15.19%, versus a more modest 4.8% of the panamax market. By contrast, the supramax end of the market retreated by 5.5% on a weekly basis.

“This week was a complete mirror image from last week. All red indices were green this week, and all green turned red. The larger Capes and Panamaxes showed some strong momentum and completed the four working day week 35 with a positive week to week comparison, while the smaller Supramaxes and Handymaxes made losses. As we mentioned this week was a shorter week, having only four working days in the calendar as Monday the 30th August was a Bank Holiday in the UK and the Baltic Exchange had no indices nor fixtures published, however that did not stop the weekly data to contain strong dynamics and a good number of interesting fixtures that we will go through further in this report” noted Cotzias.

He continued by commenting that the Capes sector has proven to us that it has a very great momentum and a volatility that is very prone to the intentions and attitudes of the Chinese. This volatility and momentum sometimes exceeds the true economic values of supply and demand that have to be met. China moves the index and this week many ships have “collected” in the Pacific areas to load for China. Ballast trips for Brazil to load iron/ore also observed. The monthly average for September for the BCI stands at 3839 points, and that is greatly higher than that of August 2010 which was calculated at 2983 points and even greater than July’s average that was 1969 points. The Yearly average for the BCI is calculated at 3443 points. Still there are many ships chasing lesser/fewer cargoes and this imbalance of the market is self]implicated and will sooner become far worse than better as we believe that owners been shooting at their own feet! The shipping markets we repeat, have regained a great share of the heavy losses encountered during the beginning of this summer. With China leading the recovery, we believe that we may well be posed for a positive September. However the underlying global market fundamentals still pose a great degree of an uncertainty level although overall the picture looks much better than 2 months ago” concluded Cotzias.

In a separate report, Golden Destiny said that the past week was characterized by a rather quiet movement in the newbuilding market. The highest activity has been recorded in the secondhand market with 17 transactions reported in total, posting around 55% increase since last week’s activity. “The S&P activity in the secondhand market upholds strong as summer season ends and we progress into the fall/winter period. Week 35/10 reminds the activity of last year’s weekly activity, with 17 vessels reported to have changed hands this week equalling a total amount of money invested around US$ 188,650,000, three secondhand transactions reported on private terms. In the demolition market, 9 vessels have been headed to the scrap yards of total deadweight 309,133 tons, while in 2009 13 vessels reported for scrap indicating a negative yearly change of around 31%. In the newbuilding market, 14 vessels reported to have been ordered equalling a total deadweight around 758,000 tons, one of the lowest newbuilding activities throughout 2010. It seems to be the first time that a lower newbuilding activity has been recorded comparable with the levels of similar week in 2009 when 10 newbuilding transactions were recorded. The wet sector has held the largest share of newbuilding contracts, equalling a total deadweight of 576,000 tons with no special trends to a particular vessel type. The Greek presence has been noticed this week only in the secondhand market with 2 transactions reported in the bulkcarrier sector equalling a total amount invested around US$ 46,500,000” concluded the broker.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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