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Thursday, 02 September 10
DRY BULK MARKET GAINS MOMENTUM TO INCREASE, WITH CHINA ONCE AGAIN TO THE RESCUE


With predictions from Chinese officials stating that the country’s iron ore imports during 2010 could surpass the record amounts of 2009, the dry bulk market as observed through the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) seems to be regaining its positive edge to rise to 2741 points, or by 28 points. For the most part, this increase was attributed to the rapid increase of the capesize segment of the market, which rose to 127 points or 3643 for the BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) In a relative weekly report, shipbroker Fearnley’s said that there was more uncertainty in the capesize market in the beginning of the week with London off and a clear lack of activity. However with everyone back in office, activity picked up and rates improved, with West Australia-China presently being done at mid usd 11 pmt and for fronthaul owners asking in the high 20s pmt with last done around usd 28. Period rates remain stable. The India business is back after monsoon period, and various operators reappearing in the market” the broker noted.

As for the Panamax market, there wasn’t a lot of business reported in the beginning of the week, for the same reasons as above. “But sentiment is rather sentiment is rather bullish across the board. Seems the increasing rates we have experienced the last couple of weeks have found its support in the FFA market. As pointed out earlier the rate increase has not had an explanation in the physical trade - but rather looking at Q4 figures in the FFA market has given ows/chrts confidence to fix short periods which in turn has helped the physical market. Grain cargoes out of USG and ECSA are starting to show themselves in the market for very end Sept and early Oct dates. The reason for the delay is that the big grain houses cvrd their first stems with all the short periods they took in some 2/3 weeks ago. Tarv getting mid 20/s lvl, Fhauls mid/low 30/s, and a Pac round low teens” Fearnley’s said.

Meanwhile, in the smaller handy segment (in terms of ship size), last week has a bullish undertone in the Atlantic, “but this was quickly put a damper on – as activity is slow this week and not much fresh enquiry. Insisting signals that a deeper recession will be hitting Europe and USA, the UK banking holiday on Monday added to the subdued tone felt this week. Indexes were all negative (except Cape) thus confirming that the momentum of the last weeks has (momentarily) stalled and we are up for volatile markets in Q4. Rates are at mid/high teens for t/a rounds on Supras (quite low) and in the 30/s for trips FEast. Outlook: stable. F.East; There is an air of uncertainty in the market and a slow start to the week with England/s Bank Holidays, tonnage supply remains healthy and rates continue to slide. Short period interest still remains firm at the low to mid 20 level. For a NOPAC round fixtures have been reported in the high teens while owners are aiming early 20/s for Indo RV/s and around the mid teen level for N.China via Indo to India” the broker concluded.

Nevertheless, August ended on a record, as far as capesizes are concerned, with the relative index rising by a whopping 130 percent, the highest since the 212 monthly gain recorded back in May of the previous year. This development is a clear indication that the dry bulk market has been as volatile as it was during 2009, with the latest series of ups and downs, being recorded since March-April (ups) and then from the end of May until mid July (downs), bringing the market from 4,300 points down to 1,700 points and back to today’s levels of more than 2,740 points.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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