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Tuesday, 27 July 10
DRY BULK SPOT CARGO DEMAND SHARPLY UP, TRIGGERING RISE IN RATES
 Hot on the heels of the dry bulk market’s first weekly gain in almost two months, Monday began on a similar note, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) gaining further ground to reach 1,841 points. Among the main gainers was the panamax sector, with the respective index rising by 41 points to 2,403, while the capesize market remained subdued, losing another 10 points to just 1,693. Should this trend persist, many owners are likely to consider laying off some of their vessels, at least for a while.
According to the latest weekly report by Commodore Research dry bulk cargo demand has increased dramatically from a week ago. Panamax rates have found continued support on the strength of robust Asian thermal coal demand and strong global grain demand. “Strong global grain demand has also continued to support supramax rates, with last week’s sudden increase in iron ore fixtures chartered to load at Indian iron ore ports giving supramax rates additional support. Last week’s overall increase in iron ore fixtures has allowed capesize rates to finally find support - although the capesize market remains under great pressure due to a large supply of available capesize vessels. Last week’s increase in Chinese steel prices is encouraging, and not entirely surprising, as prices remained flat during the previous week after seven consecutive weeks of decline.
The increase in Chinese steel prices coincides with Chinese steel stockpiles remaining steady - but iron ore port stockpiles continue to rise. It is still too soon to anticipate a sustained rebound in steel prices, however, but if prices do continue to increase, capesize rates should finally be able to rise to their rightful place atop the vessel classes as capesize iron ore fixtures will likely continue to increase” Commodore said.
A total of of 27 ore fixtures were reported last week, 11 more than the previous week. A large proportion of last week’s iron ore fixtures were for panamax and supramax vessels, however, which is partially responsible for panamax and supramax rates fairing better than capesize rates last week. Capesize rates also remain under significant pressure due to a large supply of available capesize vessels. In total, Commodore reports 124 spot trip fixtures (30 more than the previous week) and 21 period fixtures (9 more than the previous week). As a result, it’s safe to say that market sentiment has slowly started to improve but it is too early to expect a sustained rebound in freight rates.
One of the main reasons of the latest rebound of the dry bulk market is the robust demand for coal from China. Fluctuations in Chinese thermal coal imports have significantly impacted freight rates, with rates finding great support during parts of the second and fourth quarters of 2009. During these periods, a very large amount of Chinese thermal coal fixtures were completed to deliver coal for the summer and winter demand seasons.
Commodore mentions that “the sharp increase in Chinese thermal coal imports has also been responsible for dry bulk freight rates finding extended support while the market has become flooded with newbuilding deliveries (by early 2009, the market had expected freight rates to come under significant pressure due to deliveries, but a sharp, sudden, and sustained increase in Chinese coal imports occurred which allowed rates for capesize and panamax vessels to remain resilient until very recently)” the report said.
It went to state that Chinese coal imports (the vast majority of which are thermal coal rather than coking coal) averaged 3.39mt per month in 2008, 10.55mt in 2009, and 13.51mt so far in 2010. The pace of growth has now drastically decreased, however, and is one of the main reasons why capesize and panamax rates have finally come under great pressure.
Although the sudden increase in Chinese coal imports has subsided, Chinese thermal coal demand still remains robust and imports will likely increase in July and possibly August. Chinese coal imports decreased in April and May largely as a result of the drought in southwest China significantly improving, and Chinese hydropower output increasing dramatically as a result. Chinese hydropower production has now returned to normal levels - but with Chinese electricity demand continuing to surge due to the continued growth in the economy and warmer than usual summer temperatures - Chinese thermal coal demand remains robust and an increase in Chinese thermal coal fixtures will likely come to the market in the upcoming weeks” Commodore concludes.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 05 August 10
DRY BULK LOOKING TO CHINA FOR A NEW RALLY, BUT INDIA COULD BE THIS YEAR'S SURPRISE
The dry bulk market’s rebound has hit a “wall” this week, with the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ending i ...
Wednesday, 04 August 10
MALAYSIA'S AGATE GROUP TIES UP WITH INDIA'S ECOGREEN TO DEVELOP COAL BUSINESS
COALspot.com: "Malaysian based AGATE Group had entered into an agreement with India's EcoGreen to jointly develop coal business in India ...
Wednesday, 04 August 10
ADARO PRODUCED 21.62 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 1H 2010
COALspot.com: “Adaro Energy’s production volume during the second quarter of 2010 was 10.26 million tones and for the first half of 2010 ...
Wednesday, 04 August 10
CIL TO TAKE UP NEW PROJECT TO MEET INCREASED DEMAND OF COAL
As part of Annual Plan 2010-11, Planning Commission has projected all India demand of coal 656.31 Million Tonnes against which the indigenous supply ...
Tuesday, 03 August 10
INDONESIA CONSIDERING RUPIAH DENOMINATION
The jakarta post reportd that, the central bank is deliberating a potential Rupiah denomination in light of decreasing exchange rate valuations agai ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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