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Thursday, 22 July 10
DRY BULK MARKET EDGES HIGHER, BUT RECOVERY IS SLOW


The dry bulk market’s recovery, which started last Friday has sustained its momentum thus far, but the pace of it seems to be an agonizing one for ship owners. Yesterday, the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which tracks rates for shipping commodities like iron ore and coal, inched higher to 1,781 points, up by 1.14 percent, or 20 points.

In its daily report, Arctic Securities said, quoted by Reuters that “even thought the market appears to have bottomed out, any surge in freight rates still seems unlikely”. It went on to add that China's iron ore imports continue to be the main driver for the dry bulk freight market, and the latest weakness seen in imports is now clearly affecting freight rates as the supply side continues to grow with unabated force.

According to the latest customs statistics from China, the country’s iron ore imports fell by 14.66 percent in June, compared to the previous month, to a total of 47.17 million tonnes. In a worrying sign, yesterday, the Capesize segment of the market, which is widely regarded as the industry’s benchmark fell marginally (0.28 percent), with average daily earnings now standing to $13,266. Commenting on the capesize market, shipbroker Fearnley’s said in its latest report that “combined, summer doldrums and continued Chinese steel-related slowdown give little reason to cheer for cape players.

Iron ore volumes in particular remain low, with the resultant WAust/China rounds standing at present USD 6.50 pmt - barely covering operational expenses. Despite this, and despite no short-term recovery evident, major players keep picking tonnage for short/medium period at huge premiums to spot: 180,000 dwt/blt 2005 done for 4-6 months at usd 20k, 181,000 dwt/blt 2010 done for 4-6 months at USD 20,500 and also reportedly 180,000 dwt/blt 2009 concluded for 4-6 months at around usd 24k (!) - a clear indication of expected upswing for q3/q4 no matter how many newbuildings expected to enter this segment in the very near future”.

That said, it’s worth taking a look at the oversupply of tonnage issue. According to recent comments from Piraeus-based shipbroker Cotzias, “it seems that the overexcitement that led owners to order more dry cargo new buildings will only put more pressure on a market that had previously been alive but with what proved to be “mechanical and medical support”!!! The freight levels that were in excess of 30k per day, made everyone think that the newbuilding price for a Kamsarmax is value for money, and yes it could well be… but what will happen if the current dropping freight market continues at this pace for another 2 months? And 2 months with the excess volatility of the current markets seems like a long time, in which time, will the dry market face freight levels that will be adequate to cover the break even daily operating expenses including basic loan repayments? And what can be easily said to be the breakeven levels of these days, especially for ships that were acquired during 2008 and 2007? We are cautious to the extent that the headache of newbuilding orders has been cured by a regular daily feed of strong pain killers… One “blessing” was we believe the lesson we have all learnt from the container market that recently only started to push away from the “bottom” and the fact that over the past 1.5 years it has taught us that pricing at marginal cost is unsustainable, as vessels start getting laid up before long” concluded Cotzias.

Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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