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Monday, 19 July 10
CHINA ONCE AGAIN DOMINATING SHIPPING FREIGHT RATES, WHILE OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE RAISES CONCERN
 The ending of the week brought a cheerful note among dry bulk ship owners, as the sinking benchmark of the industry, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) finally came to a halt, after 35 straight losing sessions, the longest in 15 years. It managed to pull up to to 1.720 points, with daily rates for capesizes, now at $12,495, now from almost three times this figure, back in late May, when the sector’s doom began. Earlier in the week, a report from shipbroker Fearnley’s has called the state of the capesize market the most dramatic in modern times. It also warned that China would remain quiet for some time. The panamax market managed to fare better during this downfall, having four straight rising sessions during the week. Panamax rates now command $16,839 on a daily basisi, while the even smaller in capacity Supramaxes can receive even higher fees of $17,448, an abnormality that should even out soon enough, as has been the case in similar scenarios in the recent past.
Most analysts seemed to agree that the market’s demise is now over, stating that the bottom of the barrel has been found. As always, the so called China “factor” showed its teeth, with Asia’s leading economy proving to be the most critical factor for the dry bulk market. Raising the question of whether the new foreign trade record recently set from China will support shipping demand, BIMCO’s shipping analyst, Peter Sand said that “China may not post a new export record in July, but the foreign trade data looks strong from a shipping point of view. Right now container ships are departing from China fully loaded with cargo left on the quay, due to lack of containers.”
Chinese import and export figures published Monday by Chinese customs show that gross foreign trade value attained USD 254.8 billion in June 2010, which is a new record monthly high. June also marked a new export record of USD 137.4 billion, emphasizing China’s position as the world’s largest exporter. But the strong export in recent months may be inflated by the forthcoming reduction in export tax rebates that may erode the competitiveness of some Chinese goods in a combination with a stronger Chinese currency.
Iron ore imports stayed relatively strong in June with 47.2 million tonnes being landed in China down 9.1% from May. But during first half of 2010 imports are still 4.1% higher y-o-y according to Chinese customs. Given the metal product export industry is reporting an expansion of new export orders a complete evaporation of Chinese demand is not likely to take place. Despite that some have linked the continued drop of the Baltic Dry Index with an ongoing slowdown in China. “That is definitely a part of the explanation but over-supply of tonnage remains to be the focal reason for falling freight rates. According to the latest BIMCO supply growth forecast the dry bulk fleet could grow as much at 15% in 2010, with Capesize seeing the largest growth”, added Peter Sand.
In the US: state of the market composite indicators ISM Service and ISM Industry revealed identical tendencies towards continued growth at a slower pace than previous month. It is worthwhile to notice that the sub-index for new service orders declined for the fourth month in a row, to 54.4 down from 57.1 in May. This reading is the lowest this year. Meanwhile in Europe, the European Central Bank decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1% as the bank expects the euro-zone to grow moderately and at uneven in an environment still characterized by great uncertainty.
Meanwhile during the week China revealed that its GDP grew by 10.3% y-o-y in second quarter 2010 down from 11.9% in Q1. Chinese industrial production also took a breather, as growth for the second quarter came in at 13.7% y-o-y. The slowdown was expected, as indicated by the monthly manufacturing PMI data previously released. Inflation also declined to 2.9% y-o-y in Q2.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 29 July 10
GOVT TOO OPTIMISTIC ON IRON, COAL PRICE
Federal government forecasts of continued strength in iron ore and coal prices, which underpin revenue expectations for the proposed new mining tax, ...
Thursday, 29 July 10
BALTIC INDEXES ARE POSITIVE SINCE A FEW DAYS
Handy
Baltic indexes are positive since a few days which could mean that markets have bottomed out (as we correctly predicted in our report of las ...
Wednesday, 28 July 10
INDONESIA'S MERUKH SECURES US$200 MLN INVESTMENT FROM SAN MIGUEL
Trading Market Reported that, Indonesian mining company Merukh Enterprises said it has secured an investment commitment of US$200 million from the P ...
Wednesday, 28 July 10
RIZAL RISJAD MAY OWN 10% BERAU ENERGY
Rizal Risjad, son of Indonesian tycoon Ibrahim Risjad, might own 10% stakes in PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), parent company of Indonesia's fifth ...
Wednesday, 28 July 10
UNUSUAL RAINS TO HIT COAL EXPORTS
COALspot.com: Heavy rains in South and East Kalimantan have compelled coal exporters to delay or cancel coal exports. PT Bayan and PT. TIA hav ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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