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Tuesday, 13 July 10
FURTHER LOSSES FOR BALTIC DRY INDEX ON HIGH VESSEL SUPPLY


The dry bulk market can’t catch a breath, as it has now entered the 7th straight week of losses. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) posted Monday its 32nd consecutive loss, retreating down to 1,840 points, down by 62 since Friday’s session. Yesterday, marked the return of downward pressures to the capesize segment, as the Baltic’s Capesize Index lost 153 points. By contrast, the panamax market was practically stagnant. 

According to Commodore Research’s latest weekly report, “dry bulk freight rates decreased sharply last week due to significant supply-related pressure. Port congestion remains significantly lower than congestion seen earlier in the year. The recent decrease in congestion combined with the continued delivery of a large amount of newbuildings is largely responsible for freight rates coming under recent pressure. A moderate amount of cargo demand has come to the market in the last two weeks, with Asian thermal coal demand remaining extremely robust and grain and iron ore demand remaining firm. 24 iron ore fixtures were reported last week, 3 less than during the previous week.
 
Capesize rates are currently averaging $17,643/day, a decrease of $5,826 (-25%) from the previous week. Panamax rates are averaging $15,679/day, a decrease of $4,040 (-20%). Supramax rates are now averaging $18,999/day, a decrease of $1,863 (-9%). Handysize rates are averaging $14,736/day, a decrease of $1,601 (-10%)” said the report.

Based on the report, Chinese iron ore demand has remained firm, although ore fixtures have declined from the previous week which has contributed to spot ore prices coming under additional pressure. In addition, global grain demand has remained healthy, with a moderate amount of grain fixtures continuing to be chartered to load grain shipments from South America. Similarly, “iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports have risen to an extremely high level.

Chinese ports have not held ore stockpiles exceeding 72 million tons since September 2009. Contrary to a few market rumors, spot iron ore fixtures have remained relatively firm during the last few weeks which has helped iron ore stockpiles slowly increase. With Chinese iron ore port stockpiles now at near record levels, however, spot ore fixtures could begin to come under moderate pressure” warned Commodore.

With respect to the port congestion developments, the report said that approximately 155 vessels are currently anchored outside Australian ports, 5 less than a week ago. Approximately 45 vessels are anchored outside Brazilian ports, 15 less than a week ago. Of the 200 vessels congested outside of Australian and Brazilian ports, about 115 of them are Capesize vessels. In comparison, 125 Capesize vessels were anchored outside of Australian and Brazilian ports a week ago. The decline in Capesize congestion at Australian and Brazilian ports has contributed to mention Dalrymple bay and Newcastle.

On a similar note, shipbrokers N.Cotzias Shipping Group said that the BDI has lost a total of 54.8% since the 26th of May and until the previous Friday. “This proves our point that the Baltic Indices behave in a much more “financial market” manner posing more volatility and definitely shorter periodicity of peaks and troughs. Presently all the Dry Bulk markets are definitely facing a 14 month low, and the generic Baltic Dry index during this 14 month period, had previously never fallen below the 2,000 point mark.

It was only on May the 5th of 2009 that we had recorded the BDI at 1897 points and then the index moved really fast by doubling its value in less than a month. What has happened today though and we are facing such a serious collapse? When we record cape daily earnings to have lost ]20% in just a couple of days, then yes we talk of a collapsed market!” said the broker in a report.

It goes on to state that “we are facing a “chicken]egg” situation, where falling commodity prices are primarily responsible for the collapse of the shipping markets and falling shipping markets are responsible for falling commodity prices. But that can be seen as an opportunistic situation for Iron/Ore traders who know that China will buy “X” quantities during the next 2]3 months. Iron/ore prices are declining. Just for comparison levels, they have dropped by 30% since April 2010 prices and as we see every week a softening of the commodity price per ton, traders will not buy today as they know that tomorrow the same parcel will cost less” Cotzias said.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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