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Thursday, 08 July 10
DRY BULK MARKET STILL PLUNGING, NOW STANDING AT 14 MONTH LOWS


The dry bulk shipping market’s demise isn’t over yet, as the industry’s main benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has been on a falling pattern since late May. Since then it has been steadily retreating for the year highs – and indeed its post-crisis highs – of more than 4,300 points, down to yesterday’s 2,018 points, the lowest level since May of 2009. Yesterday, the index lost an additional 5.12 percent, or 109 points, to 2,018 points in its 30th straight losing session. Both the capesize and the panamax segments have been suffering, losing further ground, by 7.17% and 5.02% respectively.

Shipbroker Fearnley’s latest weekly report, commenting on the capesize market said that average spot market levels have fallen some 20% to present some usd 19k over the last week - and whilst most players expect a recovery at some stage, there is no light at the end of the tunnel yet as tonnage keeps piling up for a very limited volume of fresh business. The continuing softening is particularly felt on the fronthaul trades, where ballasters have seen their daily income cut by some usd 8k to come in around usd 17k. The shorter rounds in Pacific are just slightly better off, standing at usd 16k after taking a usd 4k/day blow. No period fixing worthy of mention - even though several majors are there to secure tonnage for short/medium duration at almost 50% premium to spot levels”.

Similarly, on the panamax segment it said that “we have experienced a free fall in rates across the board for Panamaxes the last week. For the 28th day in row the BDI declined. The lack of cargoes compared to available ships causing owners to offer lower than what´s last done in order to secure employment. At the same time we see fresh cargoes in the market, but it is not sufficient. Many believe we will not see a turn in rates until the grain season in the US kicks off, and for now coal is the main driver with some sporadical grain and iron ore cargoes. Tarv now getting mid teens and trip to Far East was done at a healthy $26k.

In the Pacific round trip´s paying mid/high teens. In China the Shanghai Consumer Index took a beat after concerns for the Chinese economy and slow recovery of the global financial crisis and yesterday the Chinese government stepped into the market to help the economy further” the broker said.

Meanwhile, in a separate analysis by BIMCO’s shipping analyst Peter Sand points out to the slowing pace of the Chinese economic growth, as evidenced by the latest manufacturing indices.

“This development, should it be permanent, is on course to have repercussions into the demand for shipping tonnage going in and out of China. China Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) released on 1 July by HSBC and Markit Economics fell to 50.4 in June, from 52.7 in May. Meanwhile a government PMI showed a slowdown to 52.1, from 53.9, both of them are indicating that manufacturing grew, but at a slower pace as compared to the month before.

Several key sub-indices from the Markit survey fell below 50 (a reading above 50 indicates growth), including output, new orders, new export orders, and both input and output prices. Prices coming down are reducing the overall inflation pressure on the economy and thereby the risk of overheating is coming a bit off. The indices were expected to drop as policies to curb lending to the red-hot property market continue to impact manufacturing negatively coupled with the European debt crisis spreading bad sentiment on business and bringing worries as to the sustainability of European recovery” BIMCO’s analysis said.

According to Peter Sand, “a more modest rate of growth in this leading indicator might affect global shipping sentiment and spread worries that China may be less of a driver in coming months than what we’ve been used to following the strong stimulus-driven recovery in China.

Slowing growth in the manufacturing sector is generally bad news for dry bulk, tankers and container shipping segments. As construction is an important part of manufacturing, dry bulk demand could slow further down in coming months”, he concluded.
Source:
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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