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Friday, 02 July 10
DRY BULK MARKET ON A FREEFALL, REACHING ITS LOWEST IN 9 MONTHS


The Baltic Dry Index is off to break more negative records this week, as the dry bulk shipping industry’s main benchmark has failed to find room for support for yet another day. Yesterday, it tumbled by an additional 55 points or 2.23 percent, to 2351, marking its lowest point in nine months. In fact, even the recent standstill of the capesize market proved unsustainable, with the Baltic’s capesize index losing further ground yesterday, down by 1.95% to 2658 points. As for the panamax market, for a second straight session, it proved to be the “weakest link” retreating by 4.4% or 121 points to 2627. Average earnings for panamax vessels now stand to a mere $21,147, the lowest since October of 2009. The BDI has now extended its downfall to 26 straight sessions, which is the longest losing streak since August of 2005. It comes to show that China’s slowdown is having a tremendous impact on shipping rates, as the rest of the world hasn’t rebounded enough to keep ships afloat.

“We are at the moment finding ourselves with an over- tonnaged market,” Alex Gray, chief executive officer of Clarkson Securities Ltd., the freight-derivatives unit of the world’s largest shipbroker, said in an interview with Bloomberg yesterday. There’s “lower demand than we have seen at any stage this year.” In a separate report by Reuters, Peter Norfolk, research director with broker FIS was quoted saying that "there is a much quieter tone than there was a few weeks ago. I think it's unlikely we will see a major rebound in the very short term at least. There is a lot of negative sentiment surrounding the Chinese steel sector and domestic demand. There is a slowdown in manufacturing growth in China, so those factors are weighing on market sentiment at the moment", Norfolk told Reuters. He added that although the capes have been sliding, they have found a little bit of support.

Imports of coal and iron ore by China, the world’s biggest user of the commodities, fell for two consecutive months, customs data show. Combined, the raw materials to make steel or generate power accounted for 54 percent of all dry-bulk goods carried at sea in the first quarter, according to estimates from Drewry Shipping Consultants in London. At the same time, the decline of South America’s grain export season has added further pressure at rates.

Meanwhile, there is increased fear that the looming oversupply of dry bulk vessels will continue to add pressure to the market in the coming months. According to Clarkson Research, the world dry bulk fleet is expected to grow by 16%, or 1,100 ships, while demand should increase by an equivalent of 634 vessels. Still, shipping industry players who took part in June’s Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide poll, said that the BDI will range between 3,000 and 4,000 points during the second half of the year. This answer came from 45.4% of the voters or 1,869 people in a total of 4,118 participants. Out of those, 22.9% or 943 votes were for the 3,000-3,500 limit, while an additional 22.5% or 926 votes were a bit more optimistic, placind the index at the range of 3,500 and 4,000 points.

Even more positive on the dry bulk market’s prospects were those 892 voters (21.7%) who predicted that the freight market will stay above 4,000 points, not to mention the overly optimistic who said it will surpass even the 4,500 point mark. They amounted to 467 or 11.3%. On the negative side were those 890 people (21.6%) who said that the market will stay within today’s range of between 2,500 and 3,000 points.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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