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Friday, 25 June 10
DEMAND FOR COAL COULD BE GRADUALLY RETURNING - FEARNBULK


Handy
Atlantic markets seeing more activity today (23 June 2010) after a slump the last weeks. Supramax vessels open in USG are achieving low/mid 30´s to the Med and high 40´s to the FEast. Handymax tonnage ex BSea achieving low 20´s fronthaul and Supras low/mid 30´s.

Nevertheless there are surely positive signs of much more fresh enquiries for the next weeks ex NCSA/USG/ CONTINENT. The immediate outlook is for recovering conditions and remains optimistic about future prospects. Last week we experienced the biggest weekly drop in BDI since October 2008. NoPac RV fixed at 20K with similar numbers for Indo RV´s, vessels opening N. China. Low to mid 20´s for ECI/FEast.

Period rates are early/mid 20´s for delivery end June/ July dates. With high season of thermal coal we hope to see the Pacific market stabilise as China imports of thermal coal pick up but there is still decreasing steel demand meaning coking coal and iron ore global imports continue to be low.

Panamax
After a substantial dive on Panamax freight rates in both basins the market seems to level out and possibly enter a turning point mid week. Demand for coal could be gradually returning but overall not enough coal, iron ore, and grains to bring the market back to new highs yet.

Congestion on the ease and new buildings keep coming into the market. However, owners are back to the hold-and-wait attitude although the amount of fresh requirements is not exactly overwhelming. Atlantic rounds fixed at mid/upper 20´s, fronthaul 36k or considerably higher for prompt Continent grain buiz. The Pacific is still in the low 20´s although short Indo rounds may reach closer to mid 20 ´s.

The period market is showing signs of recovery with short period fixtures climbing to 25k from low 20´s hand in hand with the FFA market also getting some more buying interest.

Capesize
Challenging times for the biggest ships as spot demand presently not matching flow of early units. The Atlantic is struggling in particular, as fronthaul cargoes for July dates are few and far between. Ballasters from FEast are plentiful, and consequently the Tubarao/Qingdao conference trade has fallen by usd 3.50 pmt/usd 14k per day to present usd 37k.

The W.Aust/ China trade is on a similar track, with daily earnings for Pacific rounds cut by more than 30% to come in at below usd 20k. Although no sign of recovery evident, numerous major players considering present levels temporary and thus willing cough up upto almost 50% hire premiums for tonnage willing short period.
Source: FEARNRESEARCH



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