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Thursday, 24 June 10
DRY BULK MARKET AT LOWEST POINT IN EIGHT MONTHS


The dry bulk market’s demise has failed to turn around so far this week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), yesterday fell for the 20th consecutive day, now standing at 2,515 points, which is the longest negative series since April of 2009.

It’s also the lowest point of the market since early October last year. This time around, the fall has impacted almost all ship types, with the capesize market once again finding itself earning lower daily rates than the smaller in size panamax segment. Daily rates for capesizes are now at $24,064, with the trend predicted even lower. By contrast, some dynamics evolved in the panamax market, with the Baltic’s Panamax Index rising by 45 points yesterday to 3,062 (versus 2,698 of the Capesize Index).

According to Commodore’s weekly report, “chartering activity was subdued as Chinese players were away from the market celebrating the three-day Dragon Boat Festival which began on Monday. Market sentiment has remained negative due to the growing fear of an approaching slowdown in Chinese real estate construction; this fear has intensified as Chinese steel mills have announced temporary cuts in steel output in order to reverse falling prices. Spot iron ore demand, however, remained firm throughout last week. 23 vessels were reportedly fixed to export iron ore, only 2 less than the previous week. In addition, overall spot chartering activity increased at the end the week after Chinese players returned from the holiday”.

Commenting on the capesize market in its latest report, shipbroker Fearnley’s said that these are challenging times for the biggest ships as spot demand presently not
matching flow of early units. “The Atlantic is struggling in particular, as fronthaul cargoes for July dates are few and far between. Ballasters from FEast are plentiful, and consequently the Tubarao/Qingdao conference trade has fallen by usd 3.50 pmt/usd 14k per day to present usd 37k. The W.Aust/China trade is on a similar track, with daily earnings for Pacific rounds cut by more than 30% to come in at below usd 20k. Although no sign of recovery is evident, numerous major players are considering present levels temporary and thus willing cough up upto almost 50% hire premiums for tonnage willing short period” the report said.

ICAP forecast the main index would reach 2,441 points in the third quarter and 2,677 in the first quarter of 2011. As quoted by Reuters, Georgi Slavov, head of dry freight research at ICAP Shipping said: "we remain bearish especially on the capes for the next month or two. After that, I do expect again a revival of activity". He also said that while the pace of fleet growth was likely to keep pressure on capesizes, the outlook for panamaxes and handysizes was better due to expectations for slower fleet growth.

"We may see for a prolonged period of time later on this year and especially next year capes trading below panamaxes," he said. "(Capesizes) will be under pressure."
Meanwhile, China, the biggest and most important powerhouse of the dry bulk shipping market is apparently using large amounts of domestic ore. The country produced 91.05 million tons of iron ore in May, an increase of 2.95 (3%) from 88.1mt produced in April. In the first five months of 2010, China has produced 383.2mt of ore, an increase of 90.74mt (31%) from 292.46mt of ore produced during the same period last year. Iron ore imports, however, have only increased by only 8% (China imported 262.24mt of iron ore in the first five months of 2010 and 241.93mt in the first five months of 2009). “A greater proportion of domestic iron ore has been used by steel mills this year to produce a record amount of steel. Chinese steel mills have produced 269.4mt of crude steel in the first five months of 2010, an increase of 52.36mt (24%) from the 217.04mt of crude steel produced in the first five months of 2009” Commodore noted.

Another factor weighing down of dry bulk rates is the fact that Indian iron ore exports remain under more pressure. India’s Supreme Court recently issued a restraint order restricting the Bellary Mines Company from mining iron ore in Andhra Pradesh, a state in southeast India. The company is suspected of transporting iron ore that has been mined illegally. India’s government has been consistently cracking down on illegal mining and railing of ore, as there has been widespread suspicion that government officials have been working with local mafia to transport illegal shipments of iron ore. Indian iron ore exports are under additional pressure due to monsoon rains limiting shipments. In the upcoming weeks, China will continue to source a large amount of ore from Australia and Brazil.
Source:
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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