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Wednesday, 26 May 10
DRY BULK MARKET SHOOTS UP, CLOSES IN ON POST-CRISIS ERA HIGHS


In an opposite trend than that of the previous week, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a benchmark for tracking costs to haul commodities at sea, shot up during the first two days of this week, ending yesterday’s session up by 244 points to 4,187. This is very close to the all-time highs of the BDI, since the financial crisis struck the global economy and triggered a crash of the BDI to just 661 points by early December of 2008.

The most impressive rise was noted in the leading cape size market segment, where just yesterday, the BCI (Baltic Capsize Index) shot up by an impressive 637 points to surpass the 5,000 point mark (5,262). On the opposite end, rates for all smaller ship sizes were down yesterday.

In a relative report, Commodore Research & Consultancy, said that “going forward, declining steel and iron ore prices are still a cause for concern and we still remain cautious that dry bulk freight rates will continue to come under pressure in the immediate future. It is encouraging, however, that iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports have decreased and spot chartering activity increased at the end of the week. Congestion is also high and it is encouraging that global steel production set a new record in April and so far remains firm. Global steel output normally remains robust during the Northern Hemisphere summer and we continue to anticipate a rebound in dry bulk cargo demand in the upcoming months”.

It went on to add that slowly improving conditions in southwest China have allowed hydropower production to increase, which reduces the need for thermal coal, but Chinese demand for thermal coal is expected to remain robust as China enters peak summer demand season and the economy continues to expand at a rapid pace. “In addition, the commencement of Indian monsoon season will result in China needing to import more iron ore from australia and Brazil which will lend additional support to Cape size freight rates.

A decrease in Indian iron ore exports, which are normally carried on Supramax and Panamax vessels, will be partially offset by an increase in Chinese grain imports. Overall, dry bulk cargo demand is in a bit of a lull, but thermal coal and grain demand remain robust and iron ore demand is still firm. The Chinese housing market and real steel consumption must continue to be closely monitored. It seems unlikely that steel and iron ore demand will suffer a sustained decline but spot prices and vessel fixtures must continue to be monitored closely” said Commodore.

Meanwhile, according to the latest official data, China produced 88.1 million tons of iron ore in April, an increase of 8.34mt (10%) from 79.7mt produced in March. Chinese iron ore production usually increases in the same months when China imports a large amount of ore - China imported 55.3mt of ore last month, about 2.7mt (5%) more than this year's monthly average of 52.6mt. Robust ore production in China is likely to continue - but May production may decrease as Chinese ore demand has come under pressure. China will continue to import large amounts of ore, however, as demand is expected to remain firm and domestic ore is of low quality.

In another bullish move for the market, surprise reports emerged for new building orders from both Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. According to the latest weekly report by shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS), Rio Tinto was said to have placed a US$ 500m order at Hanjin for eight 205,000 dwt vessels. Meanwhile BHP is reportedly set to give 10-year charter backing to six vessels of the same size to be ordered by Fortis bank at Hyundai (at a cost of US$ 66-US$ 67m each). “Although we have seen Vale busy in the market, this is the first apparent new building move from the other two mining groups, a strategy in line with the shift towards more CIF-based selling.

While Rio picked up several second hand vessels last year, prices have risen since then, increasing interest in new builds. The US$ 62.5m price tag quoted for Rio’s large Capes is similar to the current Baltic price for a 5-year-old 170,000 dwt Cape. If confirmed, the BHP contract would represent the first ‘Newcastlemax’ tonnage of around 200,000 dwt built by the yard since the early nineties” said the broker.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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