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Saturday, 22 May 10
PORT CONGESTION IN AUSTRALIA HELPING RATES CHINA COAL IMPORT BOOM TO CUSHION FREIGHT RATES
China's record coal imports this year will provide some support to freight rates but growing pressure from fleet oversupply is set to limit gains. Net coal imports to China, the world's biggest coal producer, could soar 70-100 percent to 170 million tonnes or more in 2010, boosting coal prices globally, if the country's power use boom continues, according to exporters and analysts including the International Energy Agency.
Much of the coal is being transported in smaller panamax vessels, which have a capacity of around 60 000 and 80 000 deadweight tonnes (dwt). This helped average daily earnings for panamaxes rise this week to over the $35 000 level -- their highest since November last year.
"One of the main freight drivers has been this growth in coal exports to China," Martin Sommerseth Jaer, lead shipping analyst with Arctic Securities, said.
Panamax earnings have averaged around $29 900 a day so far this year from $19 300 a day in 2009.
Drought in south western China has also pushed up demand for coal in recent weeks leading to record high congestion levels at ports in major exporter Australia, already struggling with logistical problems.
"(China's coal demand) has also helped contribute to congestion on the east coast of Australia thereby cutting fleet supply and boosting freight rates," Derek Langston, a director with SSY Consultancy and Research, said.
China's coal appetite is also set to help tonne mile demand -- a key indicator of ship demand -- which measures the volume of cargo transported multiplied by the distance of the voyage.
"It's very beneficial for tonne mile demand as you have the involvement of more long haul voyages to China such as Colombia and some South African coal," Langston said.
"The reduction in export availability of Chinese coal to buyers in Korea and Japan means there is another benefit ... as those buyers have to seek coal from further afield such as Indonesia and Australia."
Listed dry bulk shipping companies with panamaxes among their fleet such as Safe Bulkers, Golden Ocean group and Diana Shipping could also see gains.
"Dry bulk stocks with large panamax or supramax or handymax fleets are the most prone to benefit from this," Arctic Securities' Jaer said.
FLEET GROWTH
China's appetite for coal has also meant better sales for exporters from Colombia which is the longest route, which could also help benefit demand for coal capesizes, the largest class of dry bulk vessels with a capacity above 100 000 dwt.
But analysts say growing ship supply will put the brakes on rate gains.
"Over the next couple of years you need more coal trade to China and more coal imports to India to absorb the growing fleet," Jaer said.
"Even the most optimistic scenario on the demand side will likely not be able to bolster rates further as we believe the supply side is simply so overwhelming."
SSY estimated dry bulk net fleet growth rising to 63 million dwt this year from 38 million dwt in 2009.
"Robust Chinese thermal coal imports are expected to continue, even after the drought improves, but this incremental increase in dry bulk demand will not be enough to outpace the record level of new buildings continuing to be delivered," Jeffrey Landsberg, senior analyst with dry bulk consultants Commodore Research, said.
Panamax freight rates are currently around $27 per tonne on most major coal routes and could drop by up to $5 per tonne, but much will depend on how much ship tonnage gets absorbed, coal players said.
"It's very difficult to predict what will happen to freight rates," a major Indian importer said. "I'd like to think rates will come down later in the year but I can't be confident."
Consultants MSI estimated average panamax earnings could reach $24 000 a day by October.
Will Fray, shipping analyst with MSI, said coal imports could drop off once China's hydro power output returned to a proper operating capacity and local coal stocks, depleted by drought, were rebuilt.
"We expect earnings to be on average higher than 2009 for panamax and handymax. The order book still looms heavy, however, and we anticipate earnings to fall across all segments in 2011 even given a rise in Chinese coal imports," he said.
Source: Reuters / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 13 April 10
CHINA COAL SEEING 'STRONG DEMAND,' PUDA COAL CFO SAYS - BUSINESS WEEK
Business Week reported that, China coal prices will increase this year as the nation’s industry expands and a drought in the southwest region ...
Tuesday, 13 April 10
PEABODY, COAL INDIA CONFIRM 'EARLY STAGE' TALKS - MINING WEEKLY
Mining Weekly reported that, US coal-miner Peabody Energy is holding discussions with Coal India, the company said on Monday, after an Australian ne ...
Tuesday, 13 April 10
ANGLO PREDICTS HIGH COAL PRICES, STEADY SUPPLY
Busrep / Reuters reported that, Coal prices were expected to remain strong this year, while exports would match last year's despite rail cons ...
Tuesday, 13 April 10
THE PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN - BRS DRY BULK
Panamax rates continue to beat the market, and the Panamax 4TC is now trading at a 25% premium to the Cape 4TC — the biggest margin since the ...
Monday, 12 April 10
INDIA'S NALCO TO INVEST BIG IN INDONESIA'S ALUMINIUM PROJECT - BERNAMA
Bernama reported that, India's state- owned National Aluminium Company Ltd (Nalco) is to pump in massive investment to set up a aluminium smelter a ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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