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Monday, 19 April 10
IS CHINA TO SUFFER NEW COAL SUPPLY SHORTAGE IN 2010? - XINHUA
 Is China likely to suffer a new coal supply shortage in 2010? It's a question haunting many Chinese market analysts now. After a string of several coalmine accidents in the past month, China has launched a nationwide check on coalmine safety. Meanwhile, severe drought in southwest China has directly led to a jump in thermal power demand. Theses have aroused a market concern on a possible coal supply shortage in China in 2010.
Henan province, a major coal production base in China, has stated the coal consolidations, and how many small coalmines will be shut down has become a crucial factor determining whether China will suffer a new coal supply shortage in 2010.
-- Safety check to postpone production resumption of small coalmines in Shanxi
Shanxi province has decided to launch a three-month safety check on an internal conference on March 31 in a wake of consecutive coal accidents in March, Official with Shanxi Coal Industry Office said that the safety check in Shanxi province would mainly focus on the legality and safety system of coalmines under construction.
Following that, the State Administration of Work Safety and the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety jointly made an emergency notice on extending the safety check from Shanxi province to nationwide.
Huang Yi, vice director of the State Administration of Work Safety estimated that the check would involve more than 7000 coalmines and 1.5-billion coal production capacity.
The official with Shanxi Coal Industry Office noted that the safety check would postpone the operation of newly built large coalmines and the production resumption of the small coalmines after the coal consolidation in the second largest coal producing province in China, but would not trigger an extensive suspension of production as in 2008, said the official.
Small coalmines in Shanxi were asked to suspend production in all-round way for rectification in 2008 due to a string of coalmine accidents, and before resuming production, they were acquired and merged by large coalmines compulsorily in accordance with Shanxi?s coal consolidation plan launched at the beginning 2009.
Senior manager with sales branch of Shanxi Coking Coal Group said that about 70-million-tonne coal production capacity of small coalmines, which have been acquired by Shanxi Coking Coal Group which produced 80.79 million tonnes of coal in 2009, is scheduled to be released at the end of 2010. But the production resumption is likely to be further postponed on current circumstance.
The senior manager predicted that coal enterprises would not blindly raise coal output and therefore the expected output growth may lower.
According analyst Liu Fei with Guodu Securities, there are about 400 million tonnes/year of coal production capacity under construction in Shanxi province.
In the first two month of 2010, nearly 10 million tonnes of newly added coal output capacity has gone into operation, but the recent coal accidents would delay the operation of other newly added output capacity.
The State Council has claimed that the safety check would involve all sectors in China. The Ministry of Railways has initiated a two-month safety check since Apr. 5, and Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway, a key coal transportation channel, has also entered a one-month maintenance, which is enormously affecting the coal supply.
Although the safety check will affect the coal output in Shanxi in short term, the province still seems quite confident in fulfilling its target of producing 670-700 million tonnes of coal in 2010 and has shown no intention to revise the target.
In 2009, coal output in Shanxi province amounted to about 620 million tonnes on shutdown of small coalmines, down 30 million tonnes on year. However, the coal consolidations in Shanxi has come to an end, which would great enhance Shanxi's output capacity, and a large amount of newly formed production capacity would enter into operation this year in spite of the three-month safety check. Therefore, coal supply from Shanxi province would remain stable or even rise in 2010.
-- Southwest drought calls for greater thermal power demand
In March, power supply shortage in Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces exceeded 5 million kilowatts, which would have to be fed by thermal power generation.
The lasting severe drought in southwest China since the Chinese Lunar New Year in February has led to a dramatic decline in hydropower generation, which only took up 12 percent of national power supply in the first two months of 2010, down 9 percentage points on year.
Many southern China provinces with hydraulic power as main power source are facing electricity supply shortage.
According to Guizhou provincial government, Guizhou province has an electricity shortage of 3 million kilowatt hours. Water storage of reservoir in Guizhou has declined to the bottom level in history, down by 30 percent on year, which decreased the daily hydropower generation from 90 million kilowatt hours to 60 million kilowatt hours.
The situation in Yunnan province is even worse, with the electricity shortage topping 4 billion kilowatt hours. Since water resource plunged by 30-40 percent on year, less than 30 percent of total installed capacity of major hydropower stations is operational. Affected by the electricity shortage, upstream sectors like ferrous metals industry in Yunnan and Guangxi have fully or partly suspended production.
About 17.6 percent industrial enterprises in Yunnan province have been severely affected.
GF Securities forecast that the power supply shortage may push up the demand for power coal by at least 4-5 percent for the whole year of 2010.
According to statistics released by China Electricity Council (CEC) in February, power coal consumption stood at 1.56 billion tonnes in 2009, and CEC predicted that China's power coal demand would remain high in 2010 at about 1.66 billion tonnes
Chen Liang, analyst with GF Securities holds China may face a new coal supply shortage in 2010 on similar condition in 2008.
But some other experts are not as pessimistic as Chen Liang, and they believe overall coal supply would keep balance in 2010 despite of regional tight supply in the peak seasons in summer and winter. Now Henan province, one of China?s major coal production bases, becomes the biggest variable affecting the balance between coal supply and demand in China.
-- Small coalmine M&A in Henan to affect national coal supply in 2010
Henan Province announced a plan on coal enterprises merger, acquisition and reorganization in March. According to a document issued by the provincial government, major coal enterprises are expected to hold over 85 percent of total coal resources in the province at the end of 2010, but it remain unclear that how many small coalmines will be shut down.
Henan planned to control its coal output at 150 million tonnes in 2010, down 80 million tonnes from 230 million tonnes in 2009.
Under such a circumstance of tight balance, a reduction of 80 million tonnes in coal output would give a heavy blow to the marketm said Chen Liang, the GF Securities analyst.
However, market observers generally doubted about the production reduction target and they hoped that the target is a upper limit.
Chen Dangyi, vice director with Department of Industry and Information Technology of Henan province, said that although the Henan has carried out guiding opinion on the coal consolidation, but detailed plan is still being formulated. It's unpredictable how much Henan's coal output would be affected by the coal consolidation.
Small coalmines, which account for nearly one third of national coal output, are blamed for about 70 percent coal accidents in China. Therefore, China will have to make greater effort in consolidating small coalmine in a bid to reduce accidents.
Source: Xinhua
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Wednesday, 06 January 10
BUMI SHARES UP AS OVERALL PERFORMANCE BEATS PREDICTIONS
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter PT Bumi Resources saw its shares jump 10 percent to Rp 2,675 ($29 US cents) on Tuesday after the com ...
Wednesday, 06 January 10
INDIA MAY HAVE BECOME TOP BUYER OF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL
India may have overtaken Europe for the first time as the biggest purchaser of South African coal in 2009, according to Raymond Chirwa, Richards Bay ...
Wednesday, 06 January 10
COAL PEAK RECEDES INTO THE FAR DISTANCE
COALspot.com (German): Coal will be available to mankind as an energy source for the next 120 years.
The German Coal Importer Association has ca ...
Tuesday, 05 January 10
SUPRAMAX MARKET REMAINED QUIET OVER THE LAST 10 DAYS BRS - DRY BULK
Despite a damp end to the year for bulk rates, shipping has weathered the storm far better than was initially expected in the wake of the financ ...
Tuesday, 05 January 10
WINTER WEATHER SPIKES COAL PRICES - CHINA UPDATE
Cold weather is driving coal prices higher and will lend the advantage in annual negotiations to suppliers, analysts said, predicting that the risin ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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