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Monday, 19 April 10
IS CHINA TO SUFFER NEW COAL SUPPLY SHORTAGE IN 2010? - XINHUA
 Is China likely to suffer a new coal supply shortage in 2010? It's a question haunting many Chinese market analysts now. After a string of several coalmine accidents in the past month, China has launched a nationwide check on coalmine safety. Meanwhile, severe drought in southwest China has directly led to a jump in thermal power demand. Theses have aroused a market concern on a possible coal supply shortage in China in 2010.
Henan province, a major coal production base in China, has stated the coal consolidations, and how many small coalmines will be shut down has become a crucial factor determining whether China will suffer a new coal supply shortage in 2010.
-- Safety check to postpone production resumption of small coalmines in Shanxi
Shanxi province has decided to launch a three-month safety check on an internal conference on March 31 in a wake of consecutive coal accidents in March, Official with Shanxi Coal Industry Office said that the safety check in Shanxi province would mainly focus on the legality and safety system of coalmines under construction.
Following that, the State Administration of Work Safety and the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety jointly made an emergency notice on extending the safety check from Shanxi province to nationwide.
Huang Yi, vice director of the State Administration of Work Safety estimated that the check would involve more than 7000 coalmines and 1.5-billion coal production capacity.
The official with Shanxi Coal Industry Office noted that the safety check would postpone the operation of newly built large coalmines and the production resumption of the small coalmines after the coal consolidation in the second largest coal producing province in China, but would not trigger an extensive suspension of production as in 2008, said the official.
Small coalmines in Shanxi were asked to suspend production in all-round way for rectification in 2008 due to a string of coalmine accidents, and before resuming production, they were acquired and merged by large coalmines compulsorily in accordance with Shanxi?s coal consolidation plan launched at the beginning 2009.
Senior manager with sales branch of Shanxi Coking Coal Group said that about 70-million-tonne coal production capacity of small coalmines, which have been acquired by Shanxi Coking Coal Group which produced 80.79 million tonnes of coal in 2009, is scheduled to be released at the end of 2010. But the production resumption is likely to be further postponed on current circumstance.
The senior manager predicted that coal enterprises would not blindly raise coal output and therefore the expected output growth may lower.
According analyst Liu Fei with Guodu Securities, there are about 400 million tonnes/year of coal production capacity under construction in Shanxi province.
In the first two month of 2010, nearly 10 million tonnes of newly added coal output capacity has gone into operation, but the recent coal accidents would delay the operation of other newly added output capacity.
The State Council has claimed that the safety check would involve all sectors in China. The Ministry of Railways has initiated a two-month safety check since Apr. 5, and Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway, a key coal transportation channel, has also entered a one-month maintenance, which is enormously affecting the coal supply.
Although the safety check will affect the coal output in Shanxi in short term, the province still seems quite confident in fulfilling its target of producing 670-700 million tonnes of coal in 2010 and has shown no intention to revise the target.
In 2009, coal output in Shanxi province amounted to about 620 million tonnes on shutdown of small coalmines, down 30 million tonnes on year. However, the coal consolidations in Shanxi has come to an end, which would great enhance Shanxi's output capacity, and a large amount of newly formed production capacity would enter into operation this year in spite of the three-month safety check. Therefore, coal supply from Shanxi province would remain stable or even rise in 2010.
-- Southwest drought calls for greater thermal power demand
In March, power supply shortage in Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces exceeded 5 million kilowatts, which would have to be fed by thermal power generation.
The lasting severe drought in southwest China since the Chinese Lunar New Year in February has led to a dramatic decline in hydropower generation, which only took up 12 percent of national power supply in the first two months of 2010, down 9 percentage points on year.
Many southern China provinces with hydraulic power as main power source are facing electricity supply shortage.
According to Guizhou provincial government, Guizhou province has an electricity shortage of 3 million kilowatt hours. Water storage of reservoir in Guizhou has declined to the bottom level in history, down by 30 percent on year, which decreased the daily hydropower generation from 90 million kilowatt hours to 60 million kilowatt hours.
The situation in Yunnan province is even worse, with the electricity shortage topping 4 billion kilowatt hours. Since water resource plunged by 30-40 percent on year, less than 30 percent of total installed capacity of major hydropower stations is operational. Affected by the electricity shortage, upstream sectors like ferrous metals industry in Yunnan and Guangxi have fully or partly suspended production.
About 17.6 percent industrial enterprises in Yunnan province have been severely affected.
GF Securities forecast that the power supply shortage may push up the demand for power coal by at least 4-5 percent for the whole year of 2010.
According to statistics released by China Electricity Council (CEC) in February, power coal consumption stood at 1.56 billion tonnes in 2009, and CEC predicted that China's power coal demand would remain high in 2010 at about 1.66 billion tonnes
Chen Liang, analyst with GF Securities holds China may face a new coal supply shortage in 2010 on similar condition in 2008.
But some other experts are not as pessimistic as Chen Liang, and they believe overall coal supply would keep balance in 2010 despite of regional tight supply in the peak seasons in summer and winter. Now Henan province, one of China?s major coal production bases, becomes the biggest variable affecting the balance between coal supply and demand in China.
-- Small coalmine M&A in Henan to affect national coal supply in 2010
Henan Province announced a plan on coal enterprises merger, acquisition and reorganization in March. According to a document issued by the provincial government, major coal enterprises are expected to hold over 85 percent of total coal resources in the province at the end of 2010, but it remain unclear that how many small coalmines will be shut down.
Henan planned to control its coal output at 150 million tonnes in 2010, down 80 million tonnes from 230 million tonnes in 2009.
Under such a circumstance of tight balance, a reduction of 80 million tonnes in coal output would give a heavy blow to the marketm said Chen Liang, the GF Securities analyst.
However, market observers generally doubted about the production reduction target and they hoped that the target is a upper limit.
Chen Dangyi, vice director with Department of Industry and Information Technology of Henan province, said that although the Henan has carried out guiding opinion on the coal consolidation, but detailed plan is still being formulated. It's unpredictable how much Henan's coal output would be affected by the coal consolidation.
Small coalmines, which account for nearly one third of national coal output, are blamed for about 70 percent coal accidents in China. Therefore, China will have to make greater effort in consolidating small coalmine in a bid to reduce accidents.
Source: Xinhua
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Tuesday, 12 January 10
COAL PRICE FORECAST RAISED AT ANZ ON STRONGER CHINESE DEMAND
Power-station coal price forecasts for this year were raised 19 percent by Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. on rising demand from Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 January 10
BUMIS SALE CONTRACT ONLY REACHED 35 PERCENT
PT Bumi Resources has only completed 35 percent if its coal sale contract this year. “More than 65 percent of our sale volume did not have a c ...
Monday, 11 January 10
THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE STEADY - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com (Singapore): The freight market for the first week of the year was quite active and the market especially in the Panamax and Supramax s ...
Monday, 11 January 10
CHINAS COAL EXPORT MAY DECLINE 50% IN 2009
Preliminary data released by China's General Administration of Customs (GAC) on Wednesday showed that China's coal export reached 2.05 million ton ...
Saturday, 09 January 10
THE FAR EAST MARKET STARTED TO STABILIZE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The FEAST market started to stabilize after the quite holidays and we saw growing activity fed by Chinese coal and iron ore imports and Indi ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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