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Monday, 19 April 10
IS CHINA TO SUFFER NEW COAL SUPPLY SHORTAGE IN 2010? - XINHUA
 Is China likely to suffer a new coal supply shortage in 2010? It's a question haunting many Chinese market analysts now. After a string of several coalmine accidents in the past month, China has launched a nationwide check on coalmine safety. Meanwhile, severe drought in southwest China has directly led to a jump in thermal power demand. Theses have aroused a market concern on a possible coal supply shortage in China in 2010.
Henan province, a major coal production base in China, has stated the coal consolidations, and how many small coalmines will be shut down has become a crucial factor determining whether China will suffer a new coal supply shortage in 2010.
-- Safety check to postpone production resumption of small coalmines in Shanxi
Shanxi province has decided to launch a three-month safety check on an internal conference on March 31 in a wake of consecutive coal accidents in March, Official with Shanxi Coal Industry Office said that the safety check in Shanxi province would mainly focus on the legality and safety system of coalmines under construction.
Following that, the State Administration of Work Safety and the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety jointly made an emergency notice on extending the safety check from Shanxi province to nationwide.
Huang Yi, vice director of the State Administration of Work Safety estimated that the check would involve more than 7000 coalmines and 1.5-billion coal production capacity.
The official with Shanxi Coal Industry Office noted that the safety check would postpone the operation of newly built large coalmines and the production resumption of the small coalmines after the coal consolidation in the second largest coal producing province in China, but would not trigger an extensive suspension of production as in 2008, said the official.
Small coalmines in Shanxi were asked to suspend production in all-round way for rectification in 2008 due to a string of coalmine accidents, and before resuming production, they were acquired and merged by large coalmines compulsorily in accordance with Shanxi?s coal consolidation plan launched at the beginning 2009.
Senior manager with sales branch of Shanxi Coking Coal Group said that about 70-million-tonne coal production capacity of small coalmines, which have been acquired by Shanxi Coking Coal Group which produced 80.79 million tonnes of coal in 2009, is scheduled to be released at the end of 2010. But the production resumption is likely to be further postponed on current circumstance.
The senior manager predicted that coal enterprises would not blindly raise coal output and therefore the expected output growth may lower.
According analyst Liu Fei with Guodu Securities, there are about 400 million tonnes/year of coal production capacity under construction in Shanxi province.
In the first two month of 2010, nearly 10 million tonnes of newly added coal output capacity has gone into operation, but the recent coal accidents would delay the operation of other newly added output capacity.
The State Council has claimed that the safety check would involve all sectors in China. The Ministry of Railways has initiated a two-month safety check since Apr. 5, and Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway, a key coal transportation channel, has also entered a one-month maintenance, which is enormously affecting the coal supply.
Although the safety check will affect the coal output in Shanxi in short term, the province still seems quite confident in fulfilling its target of producing 670-700 million tonnes of coal in 2010 and has shown no intention to revise the target.
In 2009, coal output in Shanxi province amounted to about 620 million tonnes on shutdown of small coalmines, down 30 million tonnes on year. However, the coal consolidations in Shanxi has come to an end, which would great enhance Shanxi's output capacity, and a large amount of newly formed production capacity would enter into operation this year in spite of the three-month safety check. Therefore, coal supply from Shanxi province would remain stable or even rise in 2010.
-- Southwest drought calls for greater thermal power demand
In March, power supply shortage in Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces exceeded 5 million kilowatts, which would have to be fed by thermal power generation.
The lasting severe drought in southwest China since the Chinese Lunar New Year in February has led to a dramatic decline in hydropower generation, which only took up 12 percent of national power supply in the first two months of 2010, down 9 percentage points on year.
Many southern China provinces with hydraulic power as main power source are facing electricity supply shortage.
According to Guizhou provincial government, Guizhou province has an electricity shortage of 3 million kilowatt hours. Water storage of reservoir in Guizhou has declined to the bottom level in history, down by 30 percent on year, which decreased the daily hydropower generation from 90 million kilowatt hours to 60 million kilowatt hours.
The situation in Yunnan province is even worse, with the electricity shortage topping 4 billion kilowatt hours. Since water resource plunged by 30-40 percent on year, less than 30 percent of total installed capacity of major hydropower stations is operational. Affected by the electricity shortage, upstream sectors like ferrous metals industry in Yunnan and Guangxi have fully or partly suspended production.
About 17.6 percent industrial enterprises in Yunnan province have been severely affected.
GF Securities forecast that the power supply shortage may push up the demand for power coal by at least 4-5 percent for the whole year of 2010.
According to statistics released by China Electricity Council (CEC) in February, power coal consumption stood at 1.56 billion tonnes in 2009, and CEC predicted that China's power coal demand would remain high in 2010 at about 1.66 billion tonnes
Chen Liang, analyst with GF Securities holds China may face a new coal supply shortage in 2010 on similar condition in 2008.
But some other experts are not as pessimistic as Chen Liang, and they believe overall coal supply would keep balance in 2010 despite of regional tight supply in the peak seasons in summer and winter. Now Henan province, one of China?s major coal production bases, becomes the biggest variable affecting the balance between coal supply and demand in China.
-- Small coalmine M&A in Henan to affect national coal supply in 2010
Henan Province announced a plan on coal enterprises merger, acquisition and reorganization in March. According to a document issued by the provincial government, major coal enterprises are expected to hold over 85 percent of total coal resources in the province at the end of 2010, but it remain unclear that how many small coalmines will be shut down.
Henan planned to control its coal output at 150 million tonnes in 2010, down 80 million tonnes from 230 million tonnes in 2009.
Under such a circumstance of tight balance, a reduction of 80 million tonnes in coal output would give a heavy blow to the marketm said Chen Liang, the GF Securities analyst.
However, market observers generally doubted about the production reduction target and they hoped that the target is a upper limit.
Chen Dangyi, vice director with Department of Industry and Information Technology of Henan province, said that although the Henan has carried out guiding opinion on the coal consolidation, but detailed plan is still being formulated. It's unpredictable how much Henan's coal output would be affected by the coal consolidation.
Small coalmines, which account for nearly one third of national coal output, are blamed for about 70 percent coal accidents in China. Therefore, China will have to make greater effort in consolidating small coalmine in a bid to reduce accidents.
Source: Xinhua
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Sunday, 17 January 10
THE FUTURES FOR THREE YEARS (2010 - 2012) FIRMED UP - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com (Singapore): The freight market was a bit mixed with BDI up by about 159 points and closed at 3,299 points.
BDI
The cape index cont ...
Sunday, 17 January 10
NTPC TO DOUBLE CAPACITY BY 2017
NTPC, which will launch its follow-on public offer on February 3, plans to more than double its generating capacity to over 70,000 mega watts by 201 ...
Saturday, 16 January 10
HANDY CONTINUED FIRM CONDITIONS FOR MARKET IN THE ATLANTIC
HANDY
Continued firm conditions for the Handymax / Smax market in the Atlantic with the BSI having a continued upwards momentum. US$ 45,000 ac ...
Friday, 15 January 10
INDONESIA COAL - HEAVY RAINS HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON COAL OUTPUT
Coal shipments from Indonesia's main coal-producing area are unlikely to be hit by heavy rains during January-February as many miners are prepared ...
Friday, 15 January 10
GOVT BRINGS IN DOMESTIC COAL MARKET OBLIGATION
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has issued a ministerial decree requiring producers of coal and other minerals to allocate a proportion ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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