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Monday, 19 April 10
IS CHINA TO SUFFER NEW COAL SUPPLY SHORTAGE IN 2010? - XINHUA
Is China likely to suffer a new coal supply shortage in 2010? It's a question haunting many Chinese market analysts now. After a string of several coalmine accidents in the past month, China has launched a nationwide check on coalmine safety. Meanwhile, severe drought in southwest China has directly led to a jump in thermal power demand. Theses have aroused a market concern on a possible coal supply shortage in China in 2010.
Henan province, a major coal production base in China, has stated the coal consolidations, and how many small coalmines will be shut down has become a crucial factor determining whether China will suffer a new coal supply shortage in 2010.
-- Safety check to postpone production resumption of small coalmines in Shanxi
Shanxi province has decided to launch a three-month safety check on an internal conference on March 31 in a wake of consecutive coal accidents in March, Official with Shanxi Coal Industry Office said that the safety check in Shanxi province would mainly focus on the legality and safety system of coalmines under construction.
Following that, the State Administration of Work Safety and the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety jointly made an emergency notice on extending the safety check from Shanxi province to nationwide.
Huang Yi, vice director of the State Administration of Work Safety estimated that the check would involve more than 7000 coalmines and 1.5-billion coal production capacity.
The official with Shanxi Coal Industry Office noted that the safety check would postpone the operation of newly built large coalmines and the production resumption of the small coalmines after the coal consolidation in the second largest coal producing province in China, but would not trigger an extensive suspension of production as in 2008, said the official.
Small coalmines in Shanxi were asked to suspend production in all-round way for rectification in 2008 due to a string of coalmine accidents, and before resuming production, they were acquired and merged by large coalmines compulsorily in accordance with Shanxi?s coal consolidation plan launched at the beginning 2009.
Senior manager with sales branch of Shanxi Coking Coal Group said that about 70-million-tonne coal production capacity of small coalmines, which have been acquired by Shanxi Coking Coal Group which produced 80.79 million tonnes of coal in 2009, is scheduled to be released at the end of 2010. But the production resumption is likely to be further postponed on current circumstance.
The senior manager predicted that coal enterprises would not blindly raise coal output and therefore the expected output growth may lower.
According analyst Liu Fei with Guodu Securities, there are about 400 million tonnes/year of coal production capacity under construction in Shanxi province.
In the first two month of 2010, nearly 10 million tonnes of newly added coal output capacity has gone into operation, but the recent coal accidents would delay the operation of other newly added output capacity.
The State Council has claimed that the safety check would involve all sectors in China. The Ministry of Railways has initiated a two-month safety check since Apr. 5, and Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway, a key coal transportation channel, has also entered a one-month maintenance, which is enormously affecting the coal supply.
Although the safety check will affect the coal output in Shanxi in short term, the province still seems quite confident in fulfilling its target of producing 670-700 million tonnes of coal in 2010 and has shown no intention to revise the target.
In 2009, coal output in Shanxi province amounted to about 620 million tonnes on shutdown of small coalmines, down 30 million tonnes on year. However, the coal consolidations in Shanxi has come to an end, which would great enhance Shanxi's output capacity, and a large amount of newly formed production capacity would enter into operation this year in spite of the three-month safety check. Therefore, coal supply from Shanxi province would remain stable or even rise in 2010.
-- Southwest drought calls for greater thermal power demand
In March, power supply shortage in Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces exceeded 5 million kilowatts, which would have to be fed by thermal power generation.
The lasting severe drought in southwest China since the Chinese Lunar New Year in February has led to a dramatic decline in hydropower generation, which only took up 12 percent of national power supply in the first two months of 2010, down 9 percentage points on year.
Many southern China provinces with hydraulic power as main power source are facing electricity supply shortage.
According to Guizhou provincial government, Guizhou province has an electricity shortage of 3 million kilowatt hours. Water storage of reservoir in Guizhou has declined to the bottom level in history, down by 30 percent on year, which decreased the daily hydropower generation from 90 million kilowatt hours to 60 million kilowatt hours.
The situation in Yunnan province is even worse, with the electricity shortage topping 4 billion kilowatt hours. Since water resource plunged by 30-40 percent on year, less than 30 percent of total installed capacity of major hydropower stations is operational. Affected by the electricity shortage, upstream sectors like ferrous metals industry in Yunnan and Guangxi have fully or partly suspended production.
About 17.6 percent industrial enterprises in Yunnan province have been severely affected.
GF Securities forecast that the power supply shortage may push up the demand for power coal by at least 4-5 percent for the whole year of 2010.
According to statistics released by China Electricity Council (CEC) in February, power coal consumption stood at 1.56 billion tonnes in 2009, and CEC predicted that China's power coal demand would remain high in 2010 at about 1.66 billion tonnes
Chen Liang, analyst with GF Securities holds China may face a new coal supply shortage in 2010 on similar condition in 2008.
But some other experts are not as pessimistic as Chen Liang, and they believe overall coal supply would keep balance in 2010 despite of regional tight supply in the peak seasons in summer and winter. Now Henan province, one of China?s major coal production bases, becomes the biggest variable affecting the balance between coal supply and demand in China.
-- Small coalmine M&A in Henan to affect national coal supply in 2010
Henan Province announced a plan on coal enterprises merger, acquisition and reorganization in March. According to a document issued by the provincial government, major coal enterprises are expected to hold over 85 percent of total coal resources in the province at the end of 2010, but it remain unclear that how many small coalmines will be shut down.
Henan planned to control its coal output at 150 million tonnes in 2010, down 80 million tonnes from 230 million tonnes in 2009.
Under such a circumstance of tight balance, a reduction of 80 million tonnes in coal output would give a heavy blow to the marketm said Chen Liang, the GF Securities analyst.
However, market observers generally doubted about the production reduction target and they hoped that the target is a upper limit.
Chen Dangyi, vice director with Department of Industry and Information Technology of Henan province, said that although the Henan has carried out guiding opinion on the coal consolidation, but detailed plan is still being formulated. It's unpredictable how much Henan's coal output would be affected by the coal consolidation.
Small coalmines, which account for nearly one third of national coal output, are blamed for about 70 percent coal accidents in China. Therefore, China will have to make greater effort in consolidating small coalmine in a bid to reduce accidents.
Source: Xinhua
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Thursday, 21 January 10
HANDYMAX - SHORT PERIOD OWNERS IDEAS ARE AROUND MID/LOW 20S - FEARNLEYS AS
HANDY
The BSI moved in a downward direction since last Friday reflecting minor a ...
Thursday, 21 January 10
ASF GROUP TO COMMENCE COAL SALES TO CHINA BY FEBRUARY 2010
Sydney-based China energy and resource conduit, ASF Group has struck an agreement to supply coal to China.
In September 2009, ASF announced a ven ...
Thursday, 21 January 10
INDONESIA BUKIT ASAM AGREES ON LOWER COAL PRICE
Indonesian state coal miner PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk has agreed with a local power plant to set 2010 coal prices at 23 percent lower than ...
Thursday, 21 January 10
CABOTAGE POLICY POSTPONED
The Transportation Ministry has decided to postpone for one year the full enforcement of the cabotage principle – a maritime term for the proh ...
Thursday, 21 January 10
MEC IN TALKS WITH TATA POWER ON COAL - TRADE
The UAE's Middle East Coal is in talks to supply coal to Tata Power, India's biggest private sector power firm, from its new Indonesian operations ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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