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Monday, 19 April 10
IS CHINA TO SUFFER NEW COAL SUPPLY SHORTAGE IN 2010? - XINHUA
 Is China likely to suffer a new coal supply shortage in 2010? It's a question haunting many Chinese market analysts now. After a string of several coalmine accidents in the past month, China has launched a nationwide check on coalmine safety. Meanwhile, severe drought in southwest China has directly led to a jump in thermal power demand. Theses have aroused a market concern on a possible coal supply shortage in China in 2010.
Henan province, a major coal production base in China, has stated the coal consolidations, and how many small coalmines will be shut down has become a crucial factor determining whether China will suffer a new coal supply shortage in 2010.
-- Safety check to postpone production resumption of small coalmines in Shanxi
Shanxi province has decided to launch a three-month safety check on an internal conference on March 31 in a wake of consecutive coal accidents in March, Official with Shanxi Coal Industry Office said that the safety check in Shanxi province would mainly focus on the legality and safety system of coalmines under construction.
Following that, the State Administration of Work Safety and the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety jointly made an emergency notice on extending the safety check from Shanxi province to nationwide.
Huang Yi, vice director of the State Administration of Work Safety estimated that the check would involve more than 7000 coalmines and 1.5-billion coal production capacity.
The official with Shanxi Coal Industry Office noted that the safety check would postpone the operation of newly built large coalmines and the production resumption of the small coalmines after the coal consolidation in the second largest coal producing province in China, but would not trigger an extensive suspension of production as in 2008, said the official.
Small coalmines in Shanxi were asked to suspend production in all-round way for rectification in 2008 due to a string of coalmine accidents, and before resuming production, they were acquired and merged by large coalmines compulsorily in accordance with Shanxi?s coal consolidation plan launched at the beginning 2009.
Senior manager with sales branch of Shanxi Coking Coal Group said that about 70-million-tonne coal production capacity of small coalmines, which have been acquired by Shanxi Coking Coal Group which produced 80.79 million tonnes of coal in 2009, is scheduled to be released at the end of 2010. But the production resumption is likely to be further postponed on current circumstance.
The senior manager predicted that coal enterprises would not blindly raise coal output and therefore the expected output growth may lower.
According analyst Liu Fei with Guodu Securities, there are about 400 million tonnes/year of coal production capacity under construction in Shanxi province.
In the first two month of 2010, nearly 10 million tonnes of newly added coal output capacity has gone into operation, but the recent coal accidents would delay the operation of other newly added output capacity.
The State Council has claimed that the safety check would involve all sectors in China. The Ministry of Railways has initiated a two-month safety check since Apr. 5, and Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway, a key coal transportation channel, has also entered a one-month maintenance, which is enormously affecting the coal supply.
Although the safety check will affect the coal output in Shanxi in short term, the province still seems quite confident in fulfilling its target of producing 670-700 million tonnes of coal in 2010 and has shown no intention to revise the target.
In 2009, coal output in Shanxi province amounted to about 620 million tonnes on shutdown of small coalmines, down 30 million tonnes on year. However, the coal consolidations in Shanxi has come to an end, which would great enhance Shanxi's output capacity, and a large amount of newly formed production capacity would enter into operation this year in spite of the three-month safety check. Therefore, coal supply from Shanxi province would remain stable or even rise in 2010.
-- Southwest drought calls for greater thermal power demand
In March, power supply shortage in Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces exceeded 5 million kilowatts, which would have to be fed by thermal power generation.
The lasting severe drought in southwest China since the Chinese Lunar New Year in February has led to a dramatic decline in hydropower generation, which only took up 12 percent of national power supply in the first two months of 2010, down 9 percentage points on year.
Many southern China provinces with hydraulic power as main power source are facing electricity supply shortage.
According to Guizhou provincial government, Guizhou province has an electricity shortage of 3 million kilowatt hours. Water storage of reservoir in Guizhou has declined to the bottom level in history, down by 30 percent on year, which decreased the daily hydropower generation from 90 million kilowatt hours to 60 million kilowatt hours.
The situation in Yunnan province is even worse, with the electricity shortage topping 4 billion kilowatt hours. Since water resource plunged by 30-40 percent on year, less than 30 percent of total installed capacity of major hydropower stations is operational. Affected by the electricity shortage, upstream sectors like ferrous metals industry in Yunnan and Guangxi have fully or partly suspended production.
About 17.6 percent industrial enterprises in Yunnan province have been severely affected.
GF Securities forecast that the power supply shortage may push up the demand for power coal by at least 4-5 percent for the whole year of 2010.
According to statistics released by China Electricity Council (CEC) in February, power coal consumption stood at 1.56 billion tonnes in 2009, and CEC predicted that China's power coal demand would remain high in 2010 at about 1.66 billion tonnes
Chen Liang, analyst with GF Securities holds China may face a new coal supply shortage in 2010 on similar condition in 2008.
But some other experts are not as pessimistic as Chen Liang, and they believe overall coal supply would keep balance in 2010 despite of regional tight supply in the peak seasons in summer and winter. Now Henan province, one of China?s major coal production bases, becomes the biggest variable affecting the balance between coal supply and demand in China.
-- Small coalmine M&A in Henan to affect national coal supply in 2010
Henan Province announced a plan on coal enterprises merger, acquisition and reorganization in March. According to a document issued by the provincial government, major coal enterprises are expected to hold over 85 percent of total coal resources in the province at the end of 2010, but it remain unclear that how many small coalmines will be shut down.
Henan planned to control its coal output at 150 million tonnes in 2010, down 80 million tonnes from 230 million tonnes in 2009.
Under such a circumstance of tight balance, a reduction of 80 million tonnes in coal output would give a heavy blow to the marketm said Chen Liang, the GF Securities analyst.
However, market observers generally doubted about the production reduction target and they hoped that the target is a upper limit.
Chen Dangyi, vice director with Department of Industry and Information Technology of Henan province, said that although the Henan has carried out guiding opinion on the coal consolidation, but detailed plan is still being formulated. It's unpredictable how much Henan's coal output would be affected by the coal consolidation.
Small coalmines, which account for nearly one third of national coal output, are blamed for about 70 percent coal accidents in China. Therefore, China will have to make greater effort in consolidating small coalmine in a bid to reduce accidents.
Source: Xinhua
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Wednesday, 17 February 10
JORONG COULD COST BANPU 5%
Banpu Plc, Asean's biggest coal miner, forecasts a 5% drop in revenue if its suspended coal mine in Indonesia is closed for one year, says presiden ...
Wednesday, 17 February 10
RUSSIA KRU JAN COAL EXPORTS DOWN 4 PCT
Kuzbassrazrezugol, Russia's second largest steam coal producer, exported 1.859 million tonnes of coal last month, down 80,000 tonnes or 4 percent f ...
Wednesday, 17 February 10
VEDANTA SET FOR PORTS ENTRY WITH VIZAG TENDER
Vedanta, along with Leighton Contractors India, quoted a revenue share of 38.1% to win the 30-year contract
Mining and metals conglomerate Vedant ...
Tuesday, 16 February 10
TRENDS DRY BULK MARKET ... TRENDS - BRS
The start of the Chinese New Year had an immediate impact on rates and for once all the dry bulk segments lost similar ground.
The BDI fell 5%, a ...
Tuesday, 16 February 10
LAW POSES THREAT TO INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY
A zoning law could cost coal miners billions of dollars this year alone, hurt investment in the industry and disrupt the supply of the fuel to the c ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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