We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 04 May 10
APRIL 2010 COAL PRICE REFERENCE WAS US$ 86.58/T FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The directorate general of mineral, coal and geothermal of Indonesia has publishing a monthly coal price reference (HBA) to be used by ...
Tuesday, 04 May 10
DRY BULK MARKET SOFTENING AGAIN ON LACK OF DIRECTION
The dry bulk market has put on the brakes once again, after the last session of the Baltic Dry Index ended at 3,354 points, down 5 from the previous ...
Monday, 03 May 10
AUSTRALIA PLANS 40 PERCENT TAX ON MINING PROFITS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Australia would heavily tax the booming profits of its mining companies under a tax system overhaul proposed Sunday ...
Saturday, 01 May 10
THE PERIOD ACTIVITY WAS QUITE FIRM DURING THE WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 11.32 pct which was mainly due to the firmness in capsize index which was up by 21.55 pct .
The other sectors Pan ...
Saturday, 01 May 10
EXPANDED SA COAL TERMINAL TO START OPERATIONS ON MAY 1 - MINING WEEKLY
Mining Weekly reported that, In line with expectations, the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) had completed the R1,2-billion Phase V expansion ...
|
|
|
Showing 5851 to 5855 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
|
| |
| |
|
