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Wednesday, 31 March 10
DRY BULK MARKET STILL MODERATELY FALLING, BUT POSITIVE SIGNS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON - HELLENIC SHIPPING


The irregularities of the current dry bulk market have been more than evident in the fact that panamax vessels today earn more than their larger capesize counterparts, while the even smaller supramax carriers have the ability to earn just as much as the capesizes. Analysts and brokers had warned about the volatility of the market, as a result of the ever so catalytical factor of the Chinese iron ore imports and their swings of mood. This factor has weighed in more than anything else in the market.

As a result, at the time being the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) keeps on retreating, with yesterday’s session marking yet another tumble, this time under the 3,000 point mark, to end the day at 2,982, down by 39.

According to the latest weekly analysis by Commodore Research, last week’s increase in spot chartering activity is an encouraging sign. Adding to optimism about the market’s prospects are the declining iron ore and coal port stockpile, as is the drop in Chinese steel stockpiles. “Dry bulk commodity prices (iron ore, steel, coal, grain) remain firm and Chinese industrial demand shows little sign of slowing.

In addition, global port congestion is still very high. Capesize freight rates will likely continue to come under pressure and maintain volatility as Chinese steel mills and iron ore miners negotiate iron ore pricing and China changes its short-term import patterns. The rest of the market will be affected and rates for all vessel classes will likely continue to move closer to balance. Overall spot chartering activity, however, is firm and will likely remain at moderate levels which should help dry bulk freight rates find support. Several developments (including a severe drought in southwest China restricting hydropower production and resulting in increase in thermal coal demand, long-haul Colombian thermal coal exports being shipped to India, and a significant rise in congestion at Australian ports, etc) will continue to affect the market” said Commodore.

For instance, port congestion at Australia’s Haypoint and Darlymple Bay coal terminals is now increased to approximately 102 vessels, 14 more than the previous week and almost double the amount of vessels anchored at the ports in early February.

“Approximately 221 vessels are now anchored at Australia’s ports, 21 more than a week ago and 11 more than last year’s record 210 vessels anchored at the ports at the end of December 2009. Rising congestion in Australia (and robust congestion worldwide) will continue to support freight rates, but the latest developments in Australia will also result in an estimated loss of 4 to 8 million tons of Australian coal exports. Coking coal will be most significantly affected, and buyers in Japan and South Korea might soon be forced to import long-haul coking coal from the United States and other longer-haul exporters” said the research.

Additional factors expected to support dry bulk freight rates in the near future include Colombian thermal coal exports to India and the possibility of Indian buyers signing long-term contracts. Also, the ongoing drought in southwestern China has the potential to result in a moderate increase in near-term Chinese thermal coal demand. A large portion of the region’s electricity is normally produced by hydropower generation.

In the upcoming weeks, more thermal coal will likely be railed to the region and additional thermal coal produced electricity will be transported through China’s power grids. It remains to be seen when iron ore fixtures will improve - but disruptions in China and Australia will likely lead to an increase in thermal coal demand and longer-haul shipments of both thermal and coking coal” concludes Commodore Research.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide 



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Recent News

Tuesday, 30 March 10
PRICES FOR COKING COAL, IRON ORE TO SOAR AMID BURGEONING STEEL DEMAND: SCOTIABANK
Winnipeg Free Press  reported that, Strong steel demand from China and a recovery in the developed world will push coking coal prices 56 per ce ...


Sunday, 28 March 10
DEMAND FROM INDIA RESHAPING THE GLOBAL COAL MARKET - DAVE FOREST
Attention international coal industry. There's a new kid on the block. The nation of India. India is emerging as a major re-shaping force for ...


Sunday, 28 March 10
SHIPS FROM WC INDIA TO CHINA CONTINUED TO BE FIXED AT HEALTHY LEVELS AT AROUND US$ 50/52,000 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The dry bulk freight market seemed to be heading for a correction with all the indices dropping by 8-10 pct except for handy size whic ...


Saturday, 27 March 10
CHINA DROUGHT MAY RAISE COAL DEMAND, BOOST PRICES, CLSA SAYS - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, Droughts in southwest China may increase demand for coal used in power plants, and ‘support” prices in the &ldq ...


Saturday, 27 March 10
CHINA TO REMAIN NET COAL IMPORTER IN NEAR FUTURE - STEEL GURU
Xinhua News cited Mr Wu Chenghou a councilor with the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association as saying that China will remain a net coa ...


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