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Tuesday, 30 March 10
PRICES FOR COKING COAL, IRON ORE TO SOAR AMID BURGEONING STEEL DEMAND: SCOTIABANK


Winnipeg Free Press  reported that, Strong steel demand from China and a recovery in the developed world will push coking coal prices 56 per cent higher while iron ore prices are also set to soar, according to a new report from Scotiabank.

"A broadening recovery in the steel market" has resulted in dramatically higher prices for the two commodities, both of which are used in the production of steel, said Scotiabank commodity specialist Patricia Mohr.

"Last year, China's steel production increased hugely, partly because of their infrastructure development program but also just because of the growth in their economy," Mohr said.

"Now, this year, the steel production in China is going to increase further... and on top of that you're going to get a recovery in the steel industries in the G7 countries."

This means the prices being hammered out in contract negotiations for the two commodities are substantially higher than they were last year.

For example, contract prices for premium-grade coking coal produced by Vancouver-based Teck Resources Ltd.  will rise from US$128 per tonne to $200 per tonne for the April-to-June quarter. This compares with a record high of $300 per tonne in 2008.

"Even the $128 was a lucrative price for coking coal, so $200 is extremely lucrative for the companies. They'll be making a lot of money," Mohr said, adding that she expects prices to go even higher in the second quarter of fiscal 2010.

This is partly because Australia's Hay Point, one of the world's most important shipping ports for coking coal, was damaged by a cyclone last week, tightening the market even further.

Meanwhile, "huge price gains" are also likely for Canadian iron ore producers, Mohr said.

According to the Scotiabank report, the spot price of Indian iron ore delivered into northern China has risen to between US$154 and $157 per tonne - 122 per cent higher than the annual contract price for ore from Australia delivered to northern China. This points to a jump in annual contract prices for fiscal 2010, which is bad news for steel producers, Mohr said.

"It's going to squeeze steel producers around the world, so they are going to have to jack up steel prices quite quickly," she said.

While steelmakers may suffer, the strong price increases bode well for the many Canadian companies that produce coking coal - including Teck, Grande Cache Coal Corp.  and Western Coal Corp.  - as well as iron ore producers like Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Income Fund, Baffinland Iron Mines Corp., Consolidated Thompson Iron Mines Ltd. and Adriana Resources Inc.

In Canada, coking coal is primarily found in British Columbia and Alberta, while there are major iron ore deposits in Quebec, Labrador and on Baffin Island in Nunavut.

Scotiabank's commodity price index, released Monday, slipped 0.7 per cent in February after four consecutive monthly gains due to concerns about the economies of some European countries.

Investor worries about debt risks in Greece, Portugal and Spain led to a decreased appetite for risk and a flight into "safe-haven" investments like U.S. treasuries, which in turn pushed commodity prices lower.

The metal and minerals index fell by three per cent between January and February due to a temporary pullback in base metal, gold and silver prices.

Scotiabank's oil and gas index fell by 4.5 per cent month over month due to lower prices for natural gas and crude, but world oil demand is growing again and should be on a par with the previous peak seen in 2007 by next year, the report said.

Meanwhile, the forest products index grew by 8.1 per cent in February due in large part to the earthquake in Chile last month. The earthquake was centred in the country's major pulp-producing region and cut global pulp production capability by 7.5 per cent.

The agricultural index gained 0.6 per cent due to stronger lobster and hog prices, which offset small declines in cattle, wheat, barley and canola prices.
Source: Winnipeg Free Press (By: Kristine Owram)



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